29 March 2024, Friday, 13:12
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Economists Predict When U.S. Dollar Starts Growing In Belarus

25
Economists Predict When U.S. Dollar Starts Growing In Belarus

There is still time to buy cheap currency.

In recent days, the Belarusian ruble has been strengthening against foreign currencies. At the auction on June 10, the dollar dropped below BYN 2,5. The euro has updated its annual minimum, and its rate is BYN 3,038. Why is this happening? See more on this in the material by nn.by.

There is nothing extraordinary in these exchange rate fluctuations, it is a natural process, notes economist Dzmitry Kruk. Since our foreign trade is predominantly focused on Russia, the trajectory of the Belarusian ruble partially repeats the trajectory of the Russian currency.

“There may be deviations in this pattern, or even it may even stop working for a certain period - in the case when some internal factors come to the forefront. For example, there is a shock in the Belarusian foreign trade or in the domestic market.

However, at this very moment there have been no such shocks.

In the world, there is a trend of a certain depreciation of the dollar against other currencies (since the beginning of the year, in accordance with the so-called dollar index, it has depreciated against a basket of other key world currencies by about 10%). In recent weeks, the global rise in oil prices has added to this trend.

Under such conditions, the currencies of the oil-exporting countries are strengthening against the dollar to a greater extent than others. This is exactly the case of Russia. In recent weeks, the Russian ruble has strengthened against the dollar to the level of an annual maximum,” the expert says.

At the same time, the Belarusian ruble is growing against the dollar at a slower pace than the Russian one.

“It's a different matter if internal factors come into play. For example, those statements on sanctions that are now being announced, if implemented, may become a very significant shock for the Belarusian foreign trade and financial market,” adds Dzmitry Kruk.

Academic director of the Beroc Research Center Katsiaryna Barnukova gives a similar assessment of the situation.

“So far, our foreign exchange market is behaving rather shortsightedly. It reacts primarily to those events that are happening right now - the rise in oil prices and the strengthening of the Russian ruble. At the same time, the market, it seems, absolutely does not see future risks (future sanctions and their impact on foreign exchange earnings), and does not react to them.

The question arises whether there are living economic agents on the market or is it already regulated to such an extent that it performs purely technical functions of transferring currency from exporters to importers.

I think that American sanctions will begin to affect foreign exchange earnings in the coming weeks, and such a strengthening of the Belarusian ruble will hardly be possible to maintain for a long time.

And if the risks of new sanctions are realized, I believe that by the end of June we may see a completely different picture, despite the prices of oil and the Russian ruble,” Katsiaryna Barnukova said.

Write your comment 25

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts