Kremlin And Brussels Make Deal On Changing Lukashenka Regime?

A sensational statement by a pro-government political observer.

Back in January of this year, we argued that Gazprom is technically ready to cut off gas transit this year through Belarus due to the planned completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2, as well as contractual and political obligations to the West on gas transit through Ukraine, writes political observer Arseni Sivitski.

Now this information is already confirmed by the contract with OJSC Gazprom Transgaz Belarus for gas transit to Europe in 2021.

Removing dependence on transit states is not only an old dream of the Kremlin, but also a concrete political and business decision, personally approved by Vladimir Putin in the 2000s. As informed sources say, the main trigger for this approach was not Ukraine, but precisely the strained relations with Belarus after a series of gas and oil wars.

Only if Ukraine was able to reserve a place for itself in the transit of Russian gas thanks to the mobilization of support from the EU, which the Kremlin cannot ignore, then Belarus completely lost this competition for Russian transit flows, as always, due to "trench thinking" (which Moscow supposedly supports because of confrontation with the West), miscalculations and wrong economic and foreign policy decisions, lack of a strategic vision of the ongoing processes, and, finally, the inability to mobilize international support to defend national interests in relations with Russia.

Following the Ryanair forced landing incident, such support is no longer possible in principle. The situation is further complicated by the fact that now Belarus has turned into a "gray zone", which the West equates with threats to international peace and security, and the Kremlin is happy to play along with this interpretation. Therefore, we are talking, if not about direct coordination of economic pressure with the West, then at least about its synchronization. It is for this reason that the EU's proposals to impose sanctions against the transit of Russian gas through the Belarusian section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline immediately find a response in the form of specific decisions by Gazprom. And this is not just an alleged fear of secondary sanctions from Gazprom or the Kremlin, it is a deliberate policy of depriving Aliaksandr Lukashenka of the resource base to create conditions for regime change, the issue on which the Kremlin has already reached agreement with Brussels, and on June 16, it will be finalized with Washington.