A Flock of "Black Swans" for Lukashenka

Andrei Sannikau on the position of the collective farm dictator.

Coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign, the ex-presidential candidate in the 2010 elections Andrei Sannikau told the Forum of Free Russia about a flock of “black swans” for Lukashenka and the synergy of three elements that will help us get rid of the dictator.

- Let's talk about the situation with the plane, which happened on Sunday, 23 May, when, in fact, a civilian plane was hijacked in a terrorist manner. In your opinion, will this event become a "black swan"? There is such a theory of "black swans," some political scientists are actively talking about it.

- I think that this is not one "black swan," and they will be more. Yes, of course, this incident is one of that kind. Judging by the reaction of the democratic world, they took it very seriously, and the reaction is different from what was said before. It is a little offensive for us: after all, when Belarusians are beaten, killed, tortured, the reaction is mainly condemnation in the form of serious concerns, but without the introduction of serious measures, and when the inhabitants of Europe and the United States are threatened, then a more serious reaction follows. But, in any case, it is good that our friends living in a democratic world have realized the danger of the Lukashenka regime.

- The very scenario of this special operation - these messages about mining, a bomb, the story with Hamas, and other components - in your opinion, who wrote all this? Lukashenka dictated to his officials, for example, a letter from Hamas, which should end with the phrase "Allahu Akbar"?

- No, there are now enough writers and directors because the dictator lives in fear. He is probably most afraid of the danger that may come from his inner circle. At the same time, this creates a situation of competition within the inner circle for attention and resources. Because there are fewer and fewer resources, it means that the one who "guards" better will receive money. And the one who comes up with the most serious danger for Lukashenka and fulfills some of his whims is the one who "guards" better. Someone hurried in advance and said: "Let's now turn the arrows away from what is happening in Belarus." Concerning that complete lawlessness: I am talking not only about the closure of the media and ongoing arrests, lawlessness, but also about the tragedy, about the death of Vitold Ashurok in the colony, not even death, but murder - we saw that. To cover it up and somehow hang a curtain over this lawlessness, they decided to internationalize Lukashenka's actions a little. It turned out as it turned out. They don't know any other way. Because where is the genesis of this absurdity? After all, these are rats in the water supply system, iron rods, and Molotov cocktails in 2010 on the square, which, of course, never happened. They are such writers - absolutely incompetent, stupid, but dangerous, extremely dangerous.

- US Ambassador to Belarus Julia Fisher said that the West should answer Lukashenka in the language he can understand. In your opinion, what is this language that Lukashenka can understand?

- Only the language of force, the language of sanctions. There is a lot of talk about sanctions, but they are not there. Therefore, I explain once again that the so-called targeted sanctions are sanctions against individuals, that is, restrictions on entry to Europe in the main, which they do not care much about. The list itself is important, because there is no justice in Belarus, and if you condemn it at the international level, it means that the perpetrators of crimes are named by name. This is important, but it does not affect the situation, because they giggle among themselves and say: "These weaklings, a little time will pass, and they will lift the sanctions again, and we will go wherever we want." So it was every time. Every time there was this pendulum. At the same time, economic sanctions, as soon as they are introduced, immediately give a result and, first of all, the goal, because of which economic sanctions should be introduced and tightened, is achieved. This is the release of all people who are imprisoned for political reasons, and I will remind you that there are more than 3000 of them in Belarus. Not a few hundred, as human rights activists claim, but more than 3000 - and this figure is called by the Ministry of Internal Affairs - of people who are prosecuted for political motives. I do not reproach human rights activists, the list is being replenished, but I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, when there are demands for the release of political prisoners, these demands concern thousands of people who are in prisons.

- In connection with the story with the plane, the West again actively discussed the fourth and fifth package of sanctions and started talking about the possibility of imposing sanctions against the export of Belarusian fertilizers and gas. How hard will this hit the Lukashenka regime?

- This will just hit the feeding of the Lukashenka regime. It must be understood that this will hit first of all his ability to pay the punishers, and this must be remembered. Needless to say, this will somehow affect the well-being of people, the economy of Belarus. This regime itself affects the economy of Belarus. He destroyed it and continues to destroy it; respectively, not just the well-being of people is being destroyed, it is their lives. Therefore, the sanctions will affect Lukashenka's ability to maintain a punitive apparatus. Even if he now pretends that he controls something, he does not control the economy. Therefore, the sooner he is removed from his position, which he now illegally occupies, the sooner Belarus will return to normal life, and this can be done very quickly. Therefore, such sanctions should be introduced, they should pursue the goal and really cut off Lukashenka and his regime from funding. We all know that Lukashenka still controls everything through banks; therefore, when Western financial institutions begin to say that we give for the development of private small or medium-sized businesses, this is a very strange excuse because everything goes through Lukashenka's pockets or wallets.

- MEP from Lithuania Rasa Yuknevičienė, even before the situation with the plane, emphasized and said that sanctions must be introduced so that ordinary people do not suffer from them. Now the situation is such that, one way or another, the ordinary people of Belarus suffer from these sanctions, take at least the story of the ban on air travel. What position do you personally adhere to in terms of sanctions?

- I think this is a very hypocritical and cynical excuse used by regime bleachers. I do not mean Rasa Juknevičienė, because she is known for her commitment to democracy, human rights, support for democratic forces, and she is a great friend of ours. This is true, but this mantra simply sounds from the regime's bleachers both inside and outside Belarus. This is complete nonsense because, if serious sanctions were introduced in 2011, and not just targeted, personal ones, then this regime would no longer exist. For example, being in prison, I was against being traded, Mikalai Statkevich was also against it, he stated this publicly and repeatedly. Mikalai is now in prison again. Why were we against it? Because the goal was not to release us, innocently convicted and innocently thrown into prisons, but to start other processes in Belarus, which were then possible, in 2011. Even after we landed, we received such signals that we could talk. By the way, we were in the mood to talk about evolutionary processes. But this did not happen, and now let's look at the bottom line. It is impossible now to repeat this mantra that “it will harm the people of Belarus” - the people of Belarus have been living in inhuman conditions for 27 years. And now they practically live in a concentration camp.

As for air traffic: I did not call for the closure of the airspace on the territory of Belarus, it was Lukashenka who did it. I probably would not have called for this, but Lukashenka did it. We started talking about "black swans," and he will continue to do what will harm the people. That is, this is the most serious danger for the people of Belarus. And I will stress once again: this is a threat to international security, which Western politicians are now finally talking about.

- Returning again to this special operation with the plane. Then various indirect facts appeared, from which many conclude that this operation was being prepared in relation to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. That she herself flew this flight a week earlier, and that the email inbox from which the letter came was created on the days when she flew. Do you think this version is worth considering?

- I don’t know, I don’t have any facts. I absolutely cannot comment on anything here because I have neither information nor facts. And what was done with the landing of the plane, it does not matter who was on board (of course, we are worried about the people and demand the release of Raman and Sofia), but what is important is that they were threatening the citizens of democratic states, which is why such a reaction followed. Moreover, such impudent actions of Lukashenka emphasized that he is ready to act both extraterritorially (what they threatened with; Karpiankou threatened, for example, to get everyone who is abroad) and in relation to citizens of other states on the territory of Belarus. This, it seems to me, very seriously exposed the essence of the regime we have known for a long time - even for those who said that one should not offend Lukashenka so that the people of Belarus would not “suffer.”

- The liberation of Raman and Sophia is demanded by the whole world except for Russia. Although Sofia Sapega is a citizen of Russia. In your opinion, can such a sluggish reaction of Russia towards its citizen indicate that this special operation was prepared in cooperation or under the supervision of the Russian FSB?

- I think that the information was two-sided, but I do not think that such an operation was approved because Russia does not need it, in my opinion. Let's wait for the investigation because I believe that the investigation will be taken seriously, and all the facts will be provided.

As for Sofia... How can Russia help with the release of Sapega? They still remember the insults inflicted on them by the Chancellor of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania with such a surname. So they, probably, first of all, see the surname and not that she is a citizen of Russia.

- Everything that happened in terms of the plane and the international reaction that followed, in fact, puts Belarus in one hundred percent isolation. Does this make the absorption of Belarus by Russia any closer? Recently, a meeting again between Putin and Lukashenka took place...

- This is another also very rotten "argument." I have heard it for 27 years, 26 - to be more precise. Let's not put pressure on Lukashenka because this will allow Putin to "swallow" us. Nobody has done more to tie Belarus to Russia than Lukashenka. Nobody has done more to damage the independence and sovereignty of Belarus than Lukashenka. I do not see any opportunities for any somehow justified scenarios of the absorption of Belarus. At least somehow justified - I mean that at least some kind of legal fraud was planted. They simply do not exist, no one will accept it, there will be tougher sanctions if this happens. And besides, I think that these rumors were both thrown up by the KGB and thrown up through various channels, including Lukashenka's accomplices, such as Makei. They are thrown in to try and organize negotiations with the West with one simple goal - to get money. But this will not work out simply. Lukashenka is already so toxic that today it will be very difficult to explain even to the “hawks” in Russia, who are in the majority, why they need to go for some scenario of the absorption of Belarus in an environment where they are already buried in many conflicts, not knowing a way out and not seeing this exit. In general, the sanctions hit Russia hard enough, but here is the case with the plane, which renewed criticism of Biden's decision on Nord Stream 2, which is absolutely not necessary for the Kremlin, they seem to have already agreed. I would like Belarus to be viewed as a crisis situation that can give a positive solution that will suit everyone, first of all, Belarusians.

- Do you have the feeling that Putin sometimes ingratiates himself somewhat with Lukashenka? Does it seem that Lukashenka is leading Russia in all this story, or is he such a flagship of everything that is happening?

- No, on the contrary, I saw that Lukashenka there generally clung to Putin with his whole body with such a puppy squeal. I have never seen such behavior at meetings of politicians. In principle, I do not really like to discuss a topic that has nothing to do with interstate relations but has a very specific character. You can also remember Mishustin, who was forced to listen to lies about Nick and Mike, then a lie about a "conspiracy" to kill Lukashenka and how the "conspirators" were caught in Moscow, now a lie about Ryanair. I have a feeling that Putin is listening with the same “interest” to these anecdotal explanations and lies - understanding everything. I hope understanding because, after all, he has information about what actually happened. When they try to excuse Lukashenka, they completely own the information, and they do it in such a way that, in general, you cannot understand whether they support or openly mock him... Especially this last meeting in Sochi. It seemed to me that this is very similar to mockery and ridicule. Look at the body language - everything will become clear.

- The authorities of Lithuania and Poland on Sunday announced that the Lukashenka regime has become so unpredictable that it may threaten the safety of Belarusian migrants who live in their countries, therefore, they asked to post information on social networks as little as possible and to be more vigilant. In your opinion, can the regime agree to eliminate those people whom it sees as a threat for itself outside Belarus?

- As you can see, it is capable, so now the burden falls on the special services of European states and not only European ones. They must understand that, today, indeed, all the red lines have been crossed, and there will be such attempts, probably. Look, everyone's interests to get rid of Lukashenko as soon as possible and hold free elections in Belarus have come together. This is the decision, and Lukashenka prompts with every action, every "black swan": we need to do it faster, I am more and more unpredictable. Therefore, the fact that Poland and Lithuania noted an increase in its unpredictability means that they said in other words: “We need to do something shortly, no more stalling.”

- Do you think we can expect the intensification of street protests related to the latest events if we consider that the story with the plane could become such a “black swan” for Lukashenka? Can it become a “black swan” not only for Lukashenka in terms of international reaction but also in terms of internal events?

- I think - yes, of course, because I want to name again three main elements that will contribute to changing the situation in Belarus: these are protests, strikes, and international sanctions. I think that gradually we will come to the synergy of all these elements. First, it is necessary to acknowledge and bow to those people who go out to protest every day. The protests did not stop, yes, of course, the scale is not the same as we saw last year. Some of the so-called opposition worked to reduce this activity, but people come out and hold our flag. It is very important that the white-red-white flag is constantly present at the protests, and this happens every day and throughout Belarus, not only in Minsk. I think that we should expect activation and, simply for natural reasons, strikes because the workers' situation is not improving but worsening. They will have to fight for both economic and political rights. I hope that there will be economic sanctions that will show the attitude of the democratic world to our situation, which is also, in general, a serious factor that inspires people to act.