It is easier to meet three simple requirements:
In terms of the sanctions narrative, the junta follows quite within predictions and insights. From "we're not afraid," "we'll only get stronger," "two-thirds of the world is with us" (who don't know it yet) to "we're counting on a stop-gap," "we need to exchange signals" to "we've been declared an economic war," to references to World War II and we will "respond in ways that will make you freak out," which translates as follows: You can't seize Volozhin. The regime follows the script, writes the Nick and Mike Telegram channel.
As one can see, everything from the category of "cut off my nose to spite my face".
The expulsion of businesses, the confiscation games, and other crap will bring Belarus to the point of Tortuga. How it should "respond" to sanctions is still a mystery.
The focus now is on in-depth customs inspection and delayed cargo clearance. Transit will bypass it. More expensive. More inconvenient. Takes more time. But absolutely possible. All the more, it has already been repeatedly tested, when the Belarusian confiscators were screwed up. As a result, direct losses for logistics, transport, and somehow the budget, as well as bored customs officers on the border.
Remember the China factor. China's statement against sanctions should be taken in this very sense - "we should not impose sanctions because this blue-fingered madman will hit our transit". The Chinese anticipated Sasha-7-rubles' move with great ease. However, there is no guarantee that as a result of this particular scenario, China will switch from silent waiting for assistance in eliminating the root of the problem.
Russia will obviously not be happy about such actions either and will not patronize. The Russian TV channels and even "the great friend of the Belarusian people" Lavrov again began to mention the constitutional reform issue, which implies new elections. Ringing bell. Will Minsk hear it?
The Forum of Regions, which planned a meeting between the blue-fingered terrorist and Putin, is about to be online (just like last year, which really infuriated Minsk). A louder bell rings. It may be as loud as a peal.
We would, of course, recommend solving all the challenges in a single go by meeting three simple requirements:
- the release of political prisoners and their full and unconditional rehabilitation with compensation;
- the prosecution of those responsible for fraud and violence (by the way, here is the fourth report on torture, for those who believe something has changed for the better);
- new elections without representatives of the regime, with a new CEC under international observation.
This is precisely the stop-gap that the junta was talking about. One can still pull it off, but if you keep signifying consent with a nod at meetings and looking for an external enemy, nothing will happen.