Raul Rebane: Strategically, Lukashenka's Position is Hopeless

All searchlights in the world are aimed at Belarus.

One of the most authoritative Estonian communications experts, journalist and TV presenter Raul Rebane told Charter97.org about the peculiarities of the information war against Estonia and democratic Belarus, effective methods that can be opposed to propaganda, as well as the strategic defeat of Lukashenka.

- Following your public speeches, for some reason, the expression “Knight of the free speech” comes to mind. Why is the problem of free speech so important in the modern world?

- I have lived half my life without democracy, and I don't want to anymore. Free speech is one of the most important things in a democracy. The journalist must have a choice. I choose what I write about, with whom I speak and what to attach importance to. That is, I can say that this is a beautiful car, but this one is not. When these things do not come from the editorial board or not from you, but some committee or oligarch says: you write this way and give such an assessment on this topic - then that's it, the end of freedom of speech. In Estonia, we see an increase in freedom of expression: we were in 11th place in the world ranking a year ago, now we are in 15th. And Russia is in 150th place in this rating.

Freedom is a huge resource, like an explosion of human energy. It cannot be that there is freedom in economics but not in journalism. We had a danger in this regard several years ago. One populist party strongly opposed freedom of speech, and then President Kersti Kaljulaid came to parliament wearing a sweater called “The word must be free.” I think this is an important act of her presidency.

- What exactly are you currently doing as a communications expert? What problems are you interested in first of all?

- Estonia is a very small country with a 1.3 million population. In practice, we are like a laboratory of fast movement. If countries that are large in comparison with us, for example, Belarus, are not afraid that their peoples will disappear, then we have always had this fear. The younger generation is no longer afraid, but the older one thinks about it all the time. Maybe in Spain or Portugal, you can think about the economy or the coronavirus all the time, but we have to think a lot about how to preserve culture, language, and so on.

June 14 is a day of mourning in our country. Eighty years ago, there was the first major deportation to Siberia. They deported from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and other countries and took away a huge number of people, including my grandfather, his three brothers, grandmother, two uncles. Many have suffered. I think a lot about how to ensure that this never happens again, which is why freedom is needed for this.

- What can you say about the situation with freedom of speech in Belarus? How would you comment on the actions of the Lukashenka regime in relation to independent journalists and the blocking of non-state media?

- What can I say? In Belarus, there is a dictatorship, an aging dictator who has practically no choice. Freedom of speech and free internet are terrible things for a dictator. This is a real fight. Maybe Lukashenka wants to return some past, but this will not happen. A new generation will come anyway; you are influenced by democracy, Europe, as well as modern problems. There is the point of no return.

We went through all this, probably, we were not as scared as you are now, because many of your people are in prisons. I had no idea that such things could be in the center of Europe in 2021, however, they are.

- The website Charter-97 has been operating for more than three years (since January 2018) in conditions of being blocked on the territory of Belarus. At the same time, we managed not only to preserve our main audience but also to increase it in comparison with the first months of blocking. What is the advantage of independent media in the modern world?

- I have been involved in communications for 45 years, and I know that technical means are no longer a shortage for the media. The deficit is attention. I believe that when there is an onslaught on a free word, then it will still find a way out. Readers will find the opportunity to read you if you do what the people consider important, so to speak, go along with the people.

Legendary professor of the University of Tartu Juhan Peegel once said at my university: "We taught you to respect the grief and joy of your people." In Soviet times, we realized that leaders, for example, Brezhnev, said something completely different, the grief and joy of our people were in a completely different place. We lived in parallel realities. The one who really understands these things will win. If you have been blocked for three years, and people continue to read you, it means that you are doing what is important to them.

- What can most of all threaten freedom of speech, besides direct bans and blocking? What is the essence of propaganda, and how dangerous is it?

- If we talk about the tricks of information warfare, it is very dangerous when people do not understand that they are under attack. They lost, and their reality was replaced by some kind of alternative. There is a good example in Estonia: part of the older Russian-speaking population watches a lot of Russian television, mentally, they live somewhere there, but the body remains here. They believe that all these European vaccines are murder, nightmare, and so on. However, if you look at the statistics, the picture will be different: the incidence in regions where there is a large percentage of the elderly Russian-speaking population is much higher. They are waiting for Sputnik V, which will "save" them. Moreover, many believe that the situation in Russia is much better than ours, but in reality, the difference is big in our favor. It all starts with the fact that people begin to believe in nonsense, and there is no habit of checking information.

Protection against information attacks is a common value. This is where the problem sometimes arises. What does a common value mean? This means that I am Estonian, you are Belarusian, each nationality and state creates its own system for protecting its values - culture, literature, theater, and so on. In Soviet times, they tried very hard to change our values to Russian ones. For example, when I had to go to work, I started from Gagarin Street, from there went to Michurin, Suvorov, then to Gogol Street, in the end, I worked on Lomonosov Street, and, at school, I studied on Matrosov Street. Excuse me, who is Suvorov or Michurin for me? No one. They changed our national heroes for their own. I consider it important to protect my culture, heroes, and also each country should have its own rituals, ceremonies, and system of holidays. Not that your main holiday is from another country.

In addition, there is informational pressure on Estonia and Belarus from Russia, because the interests of the Kremlin are completely different. For example, recently, in my "favorite" program of Vladimir Soloviev, they said that Biden should give a guarantee or permission for the idea that Russia should have a "security zone" around its borders - and this is Estonia, Belarus, and the entire former Soviet Union... In the case of Belarus and Ukraine, the idea is generally held that they should be part of Russia. Very utopian and strange thoughts - but this is their dream. After Crimea, I have the feeling that all the political programs that I watch on the main channels of Russia are the same program. Their essence is the same - the desire to get the empire back. The empire sickness is the main disease of Russia. And if someone does not want to live in an empire, then a conflict immediately arises. I don’t want to go from Suvorov Street to Michurin Street again, I just don’t want to. The empire sickness continues in the Russian Federation, and I even feel that it will be getting stronger now, and Belarus is precisely at the center of this struggle.

- What is the difference between communist propaganda and the methods of today's authoritarian regimes - in Belarus and Russia?

- The propaganda in the 1980s was incredibly stupid. What did life begin with? With an anecdote. Brezhnev's anecdote was simply magnificent, it was the funniest time in our life. The main ideology was already forgotten, at least here in Estonia. One pair of Kram jeans or a Rolling Stones record was 10 times more important than all the Communist Party conventions put together.

Mentally, we were not there for a long time, but they told us something else, that is, it was propaganda of the old times, from the old people. At one time, my father calculated that the holiday of "all times and peoples" was close. If I’m not mistaken, there was a time in 1982 when 14 members of the Politburo would have turned 1000 years old if we added their ages together. Approximately 71.34 years for everyone, but someone died there, and it was not possible to celebrate this "holiday." Old people are walking, and we should "enjoy" their stupid decisions: it was both scary and funny. In a sense, Soviet propaganda was very successful in cinema, theater, and so on, because there are still people who believe in it. But today we have very few people who say that "bread was 14 kopecks" and "here it is, democracy."

The most important thing, in my opinion, that is missing from the current propaganda is the so-called favorites. In Soviet times, these were Gagarin and the first Soviet satellite. The whole world admired him. Now there are no favorites either in Belarus or in Russia. Ask any person in Russia which of the Russian politicians they like. Everyone loves ballet and literature. The Sochi Olympics were a disaster because of doping. Ask any person in Belarus - whom to love? Lukashenka? There is a love of the people for freedom, but what about the state level? I am convinced that all authoritarian propaganda will eventually fail, at least in Europe.

- What other weak points do modern propagandists have? Where is their Achilles' heel, which is the easiest to hit in order to destroy their myths?

- What is a myth? A myth is a story, a narrative. When a person begins to believe in myths, this affects his decisions and choices. Now, thanks to the Internet, it is a very mythical time, because everyone can participate in myth-making. I believe that YouTube, for example, is a very powerful tool of modern propaganda. Estonia is under strong attack from YouTube, it is from there that the most important myths originate: we are temporary, there is no economy, there are no factories, we are closing ports, dying of hunger, and so on. They say that 30-50% of our economy "lives" from transit. Some nonsense, pure lie. However, there are people who believe in this, and most importantly, the propagandists themselves. Recently I heard from Zhirinovsky that we are again closing ports, there is no economy, that we will return to Russia on our knees. I ask myself the question: why does Russian television use this phrase so much? I have not found the answer to this question.

It is very difficult for me to answer your question directly, but I believe that more specialists are needed who would understand the essence of modern communication. We publish books, but I don't think we are in a very good position. In my opinion, there is still no university in Europe where they would really teach the modern methods of information warfare at the doctoral level. Given the importance of the issue, I am sure that both the armies and universities will take this very seriously because the theory is developing strongly every day. And as we know, there is nothing more practical than a good theory.

- What, in your opinion, should independent media outlets that oppose authoritarian propaganda look like? What methods and technologies to use, what principles to rely on?

- Journalists cannot use the methods that authoritarian journalism uses, because immediately someone will write that this is nonsense. You won't lie as they do. It is also impossible to go to fight by such methods as in St. Petersburg, where the factory of lies (“troll factory” of “Putin's chef” Yevgeny Prigozhin - ed.), which makes special stories, influences elections in democratic countries. This means that the most important thing is free journalism. Journalists should uphold the very values that I talked about, such as being proud of literature. Of course, journalists can write that the writer is bad, but they are proud of the big picture together with their people.

The biggest danger is not propagandists or some kind of political party, but dictatorship and oligarchy. Estonia managed to get out of such a system, we have no oligarchs and never have. My father, 35 years ago, convinced me that the Soviet Union would fall apart. He explained it in a funny way: the Soviet Union is a three-legged stool. One leg is a lie written in the Pravda newspaper, the second is a military force or the so-called bayonets, and the third is economic support. At that time, 30% of the state budget was made up of vodka sales because oil prices fell dramatically. Gorbachev began to fight against vodka, and his father said: "That's it, I don't know when, but now that's it for sure. A stool on two legs cannot stand."

If you think about Lukashenka, on what legs he rests, then they are AMAP or bayonets, the second is Putin, and the third, I think, is a lie. I do not know which of these three "legs" will fall off first. You, Belarusians, can see better.

- Estonia often becomes the target of an information war on the part of its eastern neighbor. Can you explain with specific examples how the country defends itself and rebuffs Russian propaganda?

- We cannot give any rebuff because the difference is a hundredfold and we don’t have that kind of money. There is no Estonian information attack towards Russia. However, the main trump card of the information war is the proud citizen. If a citizen is proud of his country, culture, and so on, then Soloviev can say whatever he wants. I don’t believe him.

You know, there is such a good theorist Sergei Rastorguev. He has a book "The Philosophy of Information Warfare." He brilliantly describes the essence of information warfare and protection from it in the image of a fox and a turtle. The fox attacks the turtle, but it is under the shield. Then after a while, the fox comes with a lawyer and a contract of agreement that she wants to buy a shield. The turtle is afraid, does not sell. Then the fox is gone, but there is a TV in the forest. They show how beautiful the world is, all the other turtles fly in the sky, of course, without a shield, because it is very heavy and needs to be thrown off. Our turtle also wants to, but still is afraid of the fox. Then they show on TV that they don't need to be afraid of the fox, it is already harmless, it does not want meat. Our turtle believed and threw off the shield. This was the last thought in her life.

Information warfare is the purposeful training of the enemy to drop his shield. And what is the shield made of? These are the common values of the nation as a group. Nations and states. I think the Estonian defense system works pretty well. Some people think: maybe Putin or someone else is right, but excuse me, we are one-hundredth of Russia, and if all this massive propaganda were to work, then Estonia would have spoken a different language a long time ago. This means that we have found our own protection system.

By the way, people laugh very often because of entertainment programs on TV and radio. They say they spend money on nonsense. No, it’s not like that. Entertainment programs are one of the most powerful defensive and attacking means of information warfare. They are restructuring reality. In the evening, they give news, that is, facts, and then there is a series that says the same in other words for different groups of the population. For example, small Estonia makes about 20 TV series a year in its own language. This is terrible money, but it is very important. If you look at reality, it becomes clear that the state is not a company, only income and expenses are not important, but a system of signs and cultural narratives, including language. I believe that as soon as there is freedom, there will be an economy immediately.

- What is the role of the Internet and "new media" (social networks, YouTube) in opposing propaganda and creating an alternative agenda? Is it possible with their help to break the official information trend in an authoritarian country?

- Absolutely, but this is a fight from two sides. Authoritarian regimes can also use social media. Basically, social media is a destructive force in the sense that it can destroy authoritarian regimes, but it can also protect them. You always need critical thinking.

For example, I could not find enough information about what is really going on with COVID-19 in Russia because they show great hospitals on television, where Putin goes and everything is very cool. However, I felt that something was wrong. Then I started looking for information on social networks, especially about small, regional cities, and there the picture is completely different. I know for sure that there are sufficient reasons to doubt the official statistics.

- We have an expression in Belarus that if you want to find out true statistics about COVID-19, then you need to multiply the official number by 10...

- By 10 - I don't know about that. You know, demographics are very important. If we take a state like Belarus, then 10 thousand people die in it for natural reasons a month or 120 thousand a year. The generation is constantly changing. In democratic countries, after 4 years, a fairly large number of people are changing, the younger generation is coming. Count for yourself how many times a new, younger generation would have come during these 26 years of Lukashenka's rule.

The fight for the younger generation is everything. For 26 years, life has changed a lot, you just need new thoughts - otherwise, there will be a stop to development. It all depends on the thoughts and direction of the younger generation. So it has always been and will be with you. The main conflicts have always been: forward or backward, west or east. When there is an answer to this question, then everything will be clear.

- What do you think about the Belarusian protests that began last summer and continue in one form or another to this day? What, in your opinion, is the role of independent media and “new media” in maintaining protest moods among citizens?

- There should always be a connecting factor; in this situation, it is the media. When the country does not have its own independent media, it comes from somewhere else. We had this experience because Estonia was the only republic where Finnish television could be watched in the northern part of the country. We lived in the middle of three pieces of information: our Estonian television, Moscow Soviet, and democratic Finnish. The impact was enormous. They even made documentaries about it, which won international prizes.

Influence is a worldwide phenomenon. Finnish television influenced our mentality, so we got 2-3 years' advantages over all other countries (of the former USSR - ed.) because we were able to think democratically.

You have the same situation now. Real media may not be in Belarus but in other places. When the authorities use such methods as Lukashenka - the army, repression, violence - then, of course, due to human fear, the processes can be delayed, but they do not stop. It is clear to everyone that it is impossible to return a collective farm back.

- You have devoted about 20 years (from 1977 to 1997) to work on Estonian television, including as a sports commentator. How do you assess the participation in the protests of Belarusian athletes who opposed the regime in August 2020 and created the Belarusian Sports Solidarity Fund? How important is their example to society?

- I am very proud of the courage of these people. Here, in Estonia, such a kind of athlete as the decathlon is very important. You have such an athlete as Andrei Kravchenko, his fate is unclear to me now, because I read very terrible things (the Olympic medalist went on a 10-day hunger strike as a sign of solidarity with political prisoners - ed.). I have a lot of respect for people who, in difficult times, go to a real fight against the dictatorship. An ordinary person can lose his job, freedom, something else, but the athlete will lose his sports life, his dreams will not come true. I really respect and really sympathize with such people. I find it hard to find words to describe their courage.

- And how indicative is the fact that some of the employees of the Belarusian television and state media decided to break with propaganda and openly joined the protests?

- We also experienced this at one time. From 1986 to 1991, there was a kind of "libra" on Estonian, Latvian, or Lithuanian television: which way to go? In Estonia, almost the entire team, say 95%, immediately went over to the side of perestroika and changes. A person can lose his job, yes, almost everything, but when someone goes to the side of the dictator, they need to weigh options for the future. When a person is sure that Lukashenka will stay - this is his choice. However, one day it will end - and what should this person do next? After all, all the texts will remain, as he praised the dictator. How to live on?

In such cases, journalism has always been at the forefront, in danger. So it was and will be. This profession is very responsible, not only to your family but to the entire people. In Estonia, the popularity and personal respect for journalists, who in the most difficult days chose the side of the people, remained for decades. In crisis situations, journalism is high-level politics.

- Long before the incident with the Ryanair plane, the editor-in-chief of Charter 97, Natallia Radzina, called on all leaders of the Belarusian opposition to demand economic sanctions against the regime in response to repressions and restrictions on freedom of speech. Do you support the thesis that such actions of the authorities should run up against the toughest sanctions of democratic governments?

- This is a political decision - which sanctions or methods are the most effective. There were people who said after the situation with Crimea that the sanctions against Russia were "ineffective." This is a lie: the sanctions were effective if we look at the economic statistics. The experience of old times shows that when the difference in living conditions is tenfold, as it was in Estonia compared to Finland, then, in one moment, it will all spill out.

Today it is much more difficult for Belarus to keep the attention of the whole world because there is COVID-19, its own elections in the West, something else, but the Ryanair plane could become Lukashenka's fatal mistake. At a certain moment, this put all the searchlights of the world on Belarus. Many countries began to see the situation in Belarus from a different angle. This reality is now not only within the country: everyone began to wonder if it is possible to fly through Belarus at all. Maybe this is Lukashenka's fatal mistake in the end. How long will it take? I don't know, but the world is now looking at you from a completely different angle. Countries think about you and impose sanctions against Lukashenka, which is very important.

- What other measures are needed to stop Lukashenka and prevent new inappropriate actions on his part? (The interview was recorded even before the introduction of sectoral economic sanctions by the EU - ed.)

- It is very difficult for me to say because I am not so well informed. As Finnish writer Sofi Oksanen said many years ago: "If people do not know about your existence, they will not even notice that you disappear." The world is looking at you today. I believe that there should be an information flow not only within the country but also abroad.

The Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian diasporas have done a lot for 50 years, when there was no hope at all that anything would change. Despite this, they kept the attention of many countries on their peoples. We should be very grateful to them because when the situation is ripe, we were ready for changes. I think that the support and work of the Belarusian diaspora are very important. Belarus cannot be left unattended. Scandals are much shorter today than they used to be because of the constant flow of information that goes and goes. It’s hard for me to say when this will end, but Lukashenka’s position is strategically hopeless. His only trump card is Russia.

- What, in your opinion, should be done to release the Belarusian political prisoners, of whom there are already thousands of people in the country?

- I cannot know what is going on in Lukashenka's head. One thing is clear: without very strong pressure, he will not release them. In his eyes, there is no thirst for "humanitarian aid" and so on. Only strong pressure from all sides will help to release political prisoners.

- You are a candidate for master of chess. How do you assess the situation on the Belarusian chessboard? Can we talk about the zugzwang of the authorities? What are the supporters of changes in Belarus lacking for the final victory?

- In chess, the winner is the one who sees danger and opportunities many moves ahead, further than others. There is no difference between strategic thinking in chess and life. It's the same game. I have a feeling that you have thinkers who see possibilities much further, but it is very difficult for them to explain to others. I mean in the West.

The most important thing in this game has already happened: the myth about Lukashenka has changed dramatically. This is no longer "father," "clean streets," "doing something a little." In a very short time, he became a real dictator. These are two different professions.

In a chess game, if you think over many steps forward, then, at one point, a strategic opposition game turns into a tactical gain. When it will be? It's not clear yet. If there are any changes now, it will be quite difficult for him in Belarus. You know that better. Now the opposition needs to prepare for tactical decisions.

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