28 March 2024, Thursday, 19:16
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Economist: Russia And China May Take Very Tough Measures Against Lukashenka

14
Economist: Russia And China May Take Very Tough Measures Against Lukashenka

The reaction is not long in coming.

Recently Lukashenka has said that the supply and transit of products from Germany would be blocked. The Charter97.org website asked well-known economist Leu Marholin to comment on this statement.

- What consequences could it lead to? What could be the losses for the economy of Belarus?

- Any transit is paid for by money, so blocking transit will lead to a loss of revenues to the Belarusian budget, especially hard currency revenues: the money coming from travel on toll roads, fuel, motorway service, which is also used by drivers of vehicles. It will affect Russian trucks, as well as Belarusian, Polish, German ones, and so on.

If there's no transit through Belarus, the Belarusian carriers will suffer a lot: they will be sort of excluded from the process. Maybe they will have to move somewhere else, for example to Russia or where else. As for the railway transport, I don't know how much it is used in such transit, but it is paid for, which means losses for the Belarusian budget.

- Belarusians may be left without unique medicines, which have no alternatives, because of the blocking of transit. How would you comment on it?

- This is not a question of transit, but a specific ban on the import of these products, because it's not that they bring them by transit from Germany to Russia, and leave some of them here on the way. No, this is a specific delivery. If there is a ban on the import of such medicines, people who are ill with some serious and rare diseases will suffer. Most often they are forced to use only imported drugs, for which there is no substitute in our country. I do not think it will happen, but even if there is such a ban, there will be some way out. People will be forced to travel to Russia, for example, and buy drugs there, because they cannot do without it.

- Banning German transit will disrupt logistics for China and Russia, as well as smaller countries. What kind of reaction might there be from their leadership?

- I think that in this case the reaction may be quite tough, and while China, as they say, can only take some financial sanctions, limit possible loans or investments, Russia may take tougher measures. I am inclined to think that this talk about transit is more a figure of speech than Lukashenka's real intention.

- The EU has already imposed sectoral sanctions against the regime in Belarus. In your opinion, how serious is the blow to the economy caused by the fourth package compared to the others?

- I must say this is the first time when such sectoral sanctions are imposed against a European country. This has never happened before. Certainly, there are certain lobbyists, and they managed to make the sanctions softer than they could have been. Some positions in sectors have been partially removed from the sanctions list, especially those relating to potash fertilizers.

It's still a very serious blow, not just because some specific sectors will suffer. It's a broader blow. Now there is information that many German banks do not accept payments to the Belarusian enterprises, simply because they do not want to do the research, whether the enterprises are included in the sanctions list or not. It's easier for them to prohibit the transfer and return the money back. Sanctions are serious, you may not feel it so immediately, but I think they will seriously affect the economy of Belarus in the future.

- What consequences may these sanctions have?

- All those who now protect the current regime, also depend on the economic situation, so they will be affected by these sanctions. I do not think that in the near future we will reach a situation similar to that in Venezuela, when law enforcers were given bonuses with toilet paper, but the overall standard of living will fall as a result of sanctions - that's for sure.

Write your comment 14

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts