David Kramer: Lukashenka Needs to Be Pressured until He Leaves

No dialogue.

David Kramer, a researcher at Florida International University, US Assistant Secretary of State in the George W. Bush administration, answered the questions of Radio Svaboda. He spoke about four goals that the United States should set in relation to the Lukashenka regime.

- What is your overall assessment of the Biden administration over the first six months of its work in politics towards Belarus?

- According to the estimates of the American system, I would give it "B" or "B-." It wasn't bad. If 10 is the highest mark, I would give them somewhere 6.5 or 7. Julie Fisher, who was approved as ambassador to Belarus at the end of last year, but who could not come to Minsk, because she was not given a visa, I think she is doing her job extremely well. She visited Vilnius several times, met with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, visited Warsaw, met with Belarusian activists, and visited Stockholm. I think she does a very effective job in explaining US policy.

I would like this policy to be clearly announced, and for people to understand that calls for dialogue are not an option. It is impossible to have a dialogue with Lukashenka. You need to press on him until the moment when he sees that he needs to leave.

After all, there is no place for Lukashenka in any future of Belarus. It is impossible to hold new elections in which Lukashenka can take part. Therefore, he must leave. And we must not fall into the trap and think that we can encourage dialogue between him and his regime on the one hand and democratic forces on the other.

I believe that we must definitely take the side of democratic forces - not through the prism of relations between the United States and Russia but simply because they are patriotic forces that want a better future for their country and want to end 27 years of an extremely terrible, incompetent, corrupt dictatorial board. And it seems to me that the United States and all other democratic societies should take this position.

- Eric Chenoweth and Irena Lesotho, heads of the American Institute for Democracy in Eastern Europe, published an article in which they express the opinion that Belarus can become free if the West shows more determination and less fear of Putin. Would you agree that there really is a fear of Putin now?

- I would not like to use the word "fear." I would say that there is concern about what Putin might do in response to our actions. And that could be a legitimate concern. We should always consider the consequences of our actions to the end.

But in doing so, we should still act in accordance with what we consider to be the correct position. You can often hear the argument that Putin has more interests in Belarus than we do. But Europe will not be free, whole, and peaceful as long as a leader like Lukashenka remains in power.

In truth, Europe will not be like this as long as Putin remains in power. But for now, we are concentrating on Belarus. The people of Belarus have expressed themselves very clearly that enough is enough. The Belarusians want this humiliating and harmful government to end. And they want changes for a more promising future.

It should be remembered that extremely rigged elections were held in Belarus last year, and, despite his claims of victory, Lukashenka lost these elections. This reflects the depth of frustration and discontent on the part of the population. We saw huge protests last August and September, and then, unfortunately, brutal harassment by Lukashenka and his thugs who reduced the scale of the protests. But people still regularly express their grudges and disagreements with his governance. Therefore, I believe that we need to admit that being on the side of the people of Belarus is a correct, principled position.

On this issue, we cannot ignore Putin, but we also should not be guided by excessive concern and fear about his position.

- In the same article, Chenoweth and Lesotho write that the West, the United States in particular, does not have a clear political line regarding Belarus. Do you agree with this? And what would be your specific advice - what should the US administration do regarding Belarus, perhaps, in the coming months?

- I think that some elements of a common political line already exist, and the US administration is working on such a policy. It seems to me that the summit with Putin prevented this a little. But I think that the following points should be among the elements of such a policy.

First: Lukashenka must leave. Period. There can be no questions here. The future of Belarus depends on his departure.

Second: stop the persecution and violence by Lukashenka's thugs.

Third: release all political prisoners.

And fourth: create conditions for new, free, and fair elections, in which Lukashenka will not take part.

It seems to me that these are four urgent goals. And if such elections are held, and Belarus begins this transition, we need to support the development of democratic institutions and respect for human rights, the rule of law, the accountability of government, and the ability of the people of Belarus to determine their own future. And this means not letting Russia interfere so that the people of Belarus would be able to determine their own future.

- You named four political goals. But what should be the steps to achieve these goals?

- Strengthen sanctions. To direct them not only against people who are part of the regime but also those who support the regime, including against Russians who provide funding and support.

The European Union imposed sanctions against Gutseriev. The US should do the same and extend these sanctions to other Russians and other organizations that provide such support. We should not hesitate on the issue of sanctions against individual Russians and Russian companies that support Lukashenka. I believe that, without such support, Lukashenka's days will be numbered.

There is also support from the Gulf countries, in particular the United Arab Emirates. The Emirates is an ally of the United States. And I think the time has come to make it clear to the leadership of the United Arab Emirates: you can either be on the side of Lukashenka or on good terms with the United States. It's time to make a choice.

Thus, putting pressure on the sources of financial support for Lukashenka is the most important way. It is not easy to exert pressure that will lead to the departure of the head of state. But we need to focus on this first. After all, while Lukashenka remains in power, there is no hope that Belarus will move in a more democratic direction.

With the departure of Lukashenka, Belarus will not receive guarantees of movement in a democratic direction, but, for the first time, there will be at least hope and a possibility of such movement.

I believe that we should not focus too much on long-term goals. After all, if we do not achieve short-term, urgent goals - namely, the departure of Lukashenka - the rest will not matter.