28 March 2024, Thursday, 11:47
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

There Is Something In The Wind In Belarus

40
There Is Something In The Wind In Belarus

Putin has decided that Lukashenka has totally lost his mind.

At the time the European Union introduced deferred sanctions against Lukashenka, it became clear to everyone that the Belarusian economy would cease to exist in a year and a half or two if Lukashenka does not meet the West's conditions. That is, holding early free elections and releasing all political prisoners. Without a doubt, Lukashenka will not do any of these things, which is why he needs money to finance his regime. Lukashenka can get money from nowhere else but Russia. He asks Russia, but it gives money to him not very willingly and not as much as he wants. As a result, Lukashenka said he has nothing to lose, he's a crackpot, so he will impose sanctions against Russia.

What kind of sanctions are they? They refer to the ban on the transit of European goods through the territory of Belarus to Russia. Since Russia imports almost everything, it would mean a transport barrier between Russia and the EU.

Putin decided that Lukashenka had really lost his mind, and he urgently summoned him to the carpet to St. Petersburg.

More precisely, he first summoned him to the Crimea, but Lukashenka categorically refused to go to the Crimea, so they held their meeting in St. Petersburg. Before the meeting, Putin said in the part that everyone could see, it was broadcast: actually, the Belarusian economy is not as bad as it could be due to the ties with Russia. He let fall a hint that if Lukashenka continues to kick up the heels, these ties will be tightened or simply cut off, and Lukashenka and his economy will simply collapse in an instant. For without the Russian help everything will collapse not in two years there, but literally in one month.

Lukashenka said in response: "You know, we're not just talking about the economy here, we have the opposition attempting the lives of my supporters, burning their houses down and so on. So we have a war, war, war. We are sitting in a trench, under fire, so you have to pay, because you are enjoying yourselves here, doing nothing, while we are fighting. For you.

Putin replied that actually, we have our own sanctions and our own problems. So in general, he doesn't want to give him any money. They argued with Lukashenka for five and a half hours. I do not remember such long negotiations between the two presidents (although Lukashenka is a conditional president, but nevertheless). In the end, Putin promised Lukashenka to give him some money, not to raise gas prices, and to lend him a billion dollars. He threw Lukashenka a bone and kicked him back to Minsk. Lukashenka was extremely dissatisfied with the results of those negotiations. I drew the appropriate conclusion after reading the Belarusian state-run media. Usually they are full of honey after the meetings between Putin and Lukashenka. This time, there were two articles - reprints of the Russian media. That is, Lukashenka was obviously very, very displeased.

However, it is quite possible that Lukashenka was not pleased with this meeting because Putin had finally managed to twist his arms and to make Lukashenka do away with a part of the sovereignty over Belarus. Why do I draw this conclusion? As soon as Lukashenka returned to Minsk, mass searches and arrests of all non-state mass media and all non-governmental organizations of Belarus began. Why does this happen? Lukashenka is very much concerned that the unrest will start after everyone knows that he has sold his country to Vladimir Putin. The situation is getting nuts. In fact, in the political sense of the word, nothing short of North Korea is now being created in Belarus.

However, there may be another explanation for what is happening now. Lukashenka, who is left without money whatsoever, is going to compensate for the lack of it and legitimacy by mass repressions of the Stalinist type. By the way, just a few days ago, another Lukashenka's decree came into force, giving the National Bank of Belarus the right to confiscate all currency from people's bank accounts.

It is clear that Lukashenka is crushing everything alive around the perimeter not for the fun of it. Looking at this, I even wonder how it will all end. Cause something is obviously keeping him down these days. Maybe it was a visit to Putin, maybe something else. In any case, it is clear that Lukashenka will not be able to get the situation back on track, to make it the way it was just a year ago - before the presidential elections in August 2020.

The dynamics is the following. Apparently, the Belarusians have really started to resist and set the houses and cars of those who are the core of Lukashenka's regime on fire. Consequently, it's quite possible that something is brewing along these lines in Belarus as well.

Ivan Yakovina, Novoye Vremya

Write your comment 40

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts