Top Manager of the National Bank Named "Eight Shocks" for the Belarusian Economy

Many of them will intensify due to international sanctions against the regime.

Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Dzmitry Kalechyts in an interview with BelTA outlined a number of problems of the Belarusian economy.

The country rating of Belarus remains at the same level B/B - the negative forecast was confirmed at the end of June by the rating agency Standard & Poor's. Analysts also noted an increased degree of uncertainty and increased risks to financial stability.

In addition, Kalechyts sees a whole bunch of shocks and risks faced by the economy:

1. Credit risk and liquidity risk. The shocks of 2020 negatively affected the financial condition of enterprises in the real sector and limited their ability to service their obligations.

2. High level of converting of assets and liabilities of the banking sector to the currency.

3. The level of external debt has grown.

4. Sanctions. It can be expected that, in the future, the volumes of Belarusian exports and, accordingly, the volumes of foreign exchange earnings entering the country will slightly decrease.

5. Reducing the ability to attract external financing. This may most strongly affect the sphere of external public debt, where there is still a need to refinance rather large amounts of debt.

6. Lending is slowing down. Shrinking the resource base limits the ability of banks to increase credit support for the economy.

7. The level of interest rates in the money market has increased.

8. Negative expectations of economic agents. The outflow of funds of individuals from the banking system persists, as well as their demand for foreign currency in the domestic market. This, in turn, negatively affects the resources of financial institutions and their ability to lend to the economy. As a result of additional shocks, such expectations may increase even more.