No Semi-Tones

Europe has enough will to deal with the problems posed by the Lukashenka regime.

There is a very interesting twist in the border crisis. Lithuania has decided to send illegal migrants, marching in crowds from prosperous Belarus to the “decaying” West, back.

Today, probably, no one has any special doubts that Minsk is escalating the situation on purpose. The big question is why? At first glance, there is little rational in such actions - it is completely incomprehensible what bonuses the escalation of the conflict can bring in conditions when there are no friends left along the perimeter.

However, this is only at the first glance and for those who are trying to think rationally and calmly. When, on the other hand, thinking along the lines of “War” comes to the fore for one of the parties, the logic is completely different.

Obviously, the official Minsk is playing its own game, which has a fairly clear goal. It is about creating not even for Lithuania (Lithuania is here, as I think, insofar as, perhaps, the border there is the worst equipped, maybe they just want to do nasty things at the same time in revenge for its active position), but for the whole EU a problem that could become the subject of bargaining and “dialogue”, overshadowing the agenda of human rights and repression within the country, relegating it to the background.

This is some sort of a realpolitik, or something that, according to the idea, should remind it. Everyone knows and says that Western countries first of all solve their problems. If our athletes do not win because they are “not hungry”, then, apparently, the European Union also cares about other people's troubles only because it does not have enough of its own - let's add some. And let these “Westerners” think about themselves first, persuade Minsk to stop, and then we will see what is more important to them: their own border and peace in the border territories, or some kind of rights of some Belarusians out there.

In the face of such a hybrid aggression, Europe's positions looked quite vulnerable also because there are real human rights, conventions, and that's all there. They care both about laws and about people. Therefore, the calculation could be (and most likely it was) also that the European territory will be filled and overflowed with completely unwanted guests, and they simply cannot do anything about it. And, accordingly, again, they will be forced to ask, persuade - in general, go into dialogue.

However, the events of recent days show that the Minsk strategists seem to have miscalculated on this front. The security and predictability of borders for Europe is such a sensitive and principled issue that people who deliberately and purposefully create problems here are simply not perceived as possible partners.

Lithuania's plans to build a 4-meter-high fence, and to an even greater extent the announced intention to send these illegal immigrants back (besides, judging by the latest news, they have already started to implement it) is a clear signal that Europe has enough will to solve the problem in a way that prevents future blackmailing. Solve it once and for all so that the topic does not come to surface again.

This means that refugees and the fence go one way, and human rights and illegitimacy go another. No semitones. And, in the end, the strategic loss of official Minsk simply because the set goal will not be achieved, and the case itself will only add to the list of very compelling reasons for Europe and the West as a whole not to change their position.

Piotr Kuzniatsou, Telegram