17 September 2021, Friday, 22:30
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Nothing Good Awaits the Banking System in Belarus

Nothing Good Awaits the Banking System in Belarus

There is a presumption of absolute guilt against the Belarusian authorities.

Hello dear.

First, the Belarusian authorities ran out of diplomacy and foreign policy. And now, it looks like the banks are beginning to break down along with the financial system. And, it must be said, these two processes are interconnected in the most direct way.

The other day it became known that, following Deutsche Bank and Raiffeisen Bank, other Western banks are also closing their accounts in Belarusian banks, which are under sanctions. At the same time, again, the current sanctions have not required to stop payments through the Belarusian banks. When Western banks close their accounts - this is their personal initiative.

The Association of Latvian Woodworkers very well explained the motives yesterday. Besides, this association is unhappy with the sanctions against the Belarusian authorities. Last year, Latvian woodworkers bought forests in Belarus for $ 177 million, and, after the imposition of sanctions, problems arose with the purchase of timber because Latvian banks do not want to service transactions. And if they do, they first require Latvian woodworkers to prove that their partners in Belarus have nothing to do with the financing of the Belarusian authorities.

That is, in relation to the Belarusian authorities and everything that may be connected with them, the presumption of absolute guilt works. And for Western banks, of course, it is easier to refuse transfers than to carry out tedious investigations every time and look for proof of the client's innocence.

And, for Belarusian banks, this means first a loss of income and then the departure of clients. At least those to whom the authorities will not be able to apply non-economic methods of persuasion. But, even from those that remain, the benefit for banks will greatly diminish in monetary terms.

And, of course, the authorities cannot leave any Belarusbank to the mercy of fate. Because Belarusbank is still half of the country's banking system. And if at a difficult moment you do not help it financially, then nothing good awaits the banking system.

In August, the Development Bank placed bonds for a billion rubles. And, by an amazing coincidence, just in August, the National Bank's policy to reduce the amount of money in the body of the Belarusian economy cracked. Over the month, the ruble money supply increased by 2.2 percent, after it had been only decreasing for the three preceding months.

The other day Belarusbank announced the placement of bonds worth 600 million rubles. And, of course, one can assume that all those securities were bought by successful Belarusian exporters like BelAZ, MAZ, or Tractor Factory. But you and I understand that successful exporters have to be given money first so that they can buy something later.

And it doesn't really matter what complex schemes the authorities use to help the banks. Because no matter how many links are involved in this financing chain, in the end, there can be only two sources of financing. Either the budget and then the government will need to increase its deficit or/and cut spending, or what is commonly called a printing press. And then, saving the banks, you can inadvertently fail to keep the ruble.

And, probably, the participants and regulators of the Belarusian financial market are a little offended. Because the problems of the Belarusian banking system have nothing to do with miscalculations in financial policy. It's just that the modern world is organized in such a wonderful way that successes in the fight against thoughtfulness only deteriorate financial stability.

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