Sociologist Who Revealed Low Power Rating: System Could Break Down At First Significant Fluctuation

What's the first to crack?

Gennady Korshunov is the former director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus who, in June 2020, confirmed information about Lukashenka's low rating. He was asked to resign in early autumn, notes Brestskaya Gazeta.

In an interview with the Ukrainian blogger BalaganOff, the sociologist answered questions about the Belarusians' fears, the decline in protest sentiments and the possible outcome.

According to Korshunov, sociologists could not assume at the beginning of 2020 there would be such a public outburst.

"There are kind of two realities: official reality and life. All political processes used to take the official level. Nobody could expect there would be such a huge boom early that year".

Even though the outward signs of protest activity were curbed by the present moment, the protest moods have not died down. Belarusians faced various transformations of their fears then.

Answering the question about a victory the Belarusians needed, Korshunov noted:

"The point is that an intermediate victory may quickly turn into the final one. We often talk to our colleagues, and it's hard to guess what will happen. The authorities are now working on self-destruction. Lukashenka himself contributes to our victory more than anyone else. Meanwhile, the mess in the education system will show parents what kind of system it is - for those who haven't understood it yet. When the authorities burn down the last bridges set on fire back last year, people will see that the authorities can't handle anything.

Korshunov also assumes the system may break down at the first significant dollar exchange fluctuations or wage arrears. Most likely, it will start not in Minsk but in the regions.

The point is that an interim victory may turn into a final one.

"I won't even guess whether it is a protest on the part of the people or a breakdown of the vertical, the management system. Which will be the first to crack? Will it be an accident at a plant that will shake up the local community, a political or an economic thing? Or will Putin make a statement that will blow up the community? Everything is so fragile now, so shaky.

On the one hand, much fatigue has accumulated. On the other, there's still a great deal of faith, resentment towards the authorities and a sense of support from those around".