What the Belarusians should expect from the elections to the Bundestag.
Historian, Ph.D., graduate of the Belarusian State University and lecturer at the Heinrich Heine University (Dusseldorf) and Saarland University (Saarbrücken) Alexander Friedman analyzes the balance of power before the parliamentary elections in Germany. The historian in his Telegram channel expresses the opinion that they can influence events in Belarus:
In recent days, the German press has reported a sharp influx of “refugees from Belarus” to Germany. This term, however, is confusing: we are not talking about Belarusians who leave the country for political reasons and flee from repression but about illegal migrants (mainly from Iraq and other countries of the world), who are purposefully brought to Belarus and then transported across the border by the Lukashenka regime. Those migrants who manage to reach Germany (and this is already thousands of people) settle in reception centers for refugees in the east of the country, where anti-migrant sentiments are already pronounced, and the positions of pro-Russian parties - the nationalist Alternative for Germany, as well as the Left Party - are especially strong.
If one of the goals of Lukashenka and, above all, the Kremlin behind him was to influence the outcome of the elections in Germany with the help of the migration crisis, then there is a certain (albeit minimal) success. The YouGov poll released today shows that Alternative for Germany has slightly improved its position and is now gaining 12%. The Left Party also gained and has 7%. But the Greens, who are guided by humanitarian principles and call for help to refugees, are gaining less than 15% for the first time in a very long time. They are still in third place with 14%. The FDP liberals are polled with 11% of the vote. The Social Democrats remain the leader of the electoral race (25%), while the Christian Democrats of Armin Laschetare are 4% behind.
However, the growing popularity of AfD and the Left Party, most likely, will not affect the process of forming the future government. According to informed tabloid Bild, negotiations are already underway behind the scenes to form a coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals. If this particular coalition is created, headed by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, two parties (Greens and Liberals) will end up in the government, calling for a tougher course against the Lukashenka regime and the Kremlin.