Lukashenka May Become Consumable Material for the Kremlin

The Belarusian dictator is a weight on Moscow's leg.

Why Lukashenka flew to Sochi? Russian political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev shared his opinion in an article on politoboz.com.

- This is not the first time Lukashenka has been ambushed on the Black Sea coast. In 2018, he spent much time sitting in the snows of Krasnaya Polyana waiting for Putin to show up. Now the situation works both ways. On the one hand, there is an occasion for a summit meeting - the Formula I race in Sochi. The event expects international elite meetings, including Formula I fans from the Persian Gulf countries, as well as representatives of the Russian establishment. On the other hand, the main person - Putin, most likely, will not appear in Sochi until the end of the coming week. Although...

At the moment, President of Turkey Erdogan is already looming on the doorstep of Sochi. Given that the Russian air force is currently literally ironing out Idlib and Afrin zones in Syria, turning camps and headquarters of pro-Turkish forces into dust, and Erdogan has returned from New York, where he supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly, the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Turkey promises to be extremely "warm". Naturally, Lukashenka would not like to look over the fence from the sanatorium to Putin's residence, but to take part in the negotiations. But he is unlikely to be invited...

It is clear that Lukashenka has nothing to gain by sitting in Minsk, but the elite vortex around Formula I gives him a chance to get lucky. Arabs again?

There could be a lot of versions. In particular, given that post-Arab and simultaneously post-Australian Europe is entering a period of recalculation of political and economic opportunities, a European political market is opening up. In turn, Moscow, so far purely theoretically, obtains a "window" for lowering confrontation with the EU after the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is launched and in view of the renewed leadership of the FRG. Obviously, Lukashenka and his migration crisis and non-recognition of the presidential elections appears as a "weight" on Putin's leg in this case. Of course, there is no point in counting on Moscow to "give up" on its "ally" and exchange it for improved relations with the EU. First, international deals of this kind happen very rarely in the modern world and are not peculiar to Russia. Secondly, Moscow usually tries to combine two opposite scenarios. But it will have to sacrifice something in any case. The Russian Federation will hardly want to sacrifice Belarus as it has invested in Belarus nearly $150 billion. In this case, Lukashenka becomes consumable material. Does Lukashenka take it into account? After all, he is holding a referendum, which may become a "lifeline".

The parliamentary elections in Russia ended quietly. The Belarusian leader was not able to derive his economic and political benefits from the much-coveted destabilization in Russia. Lukashenka could not stand it. He is tired of rushing around his palace and waiting for the citizens of Belarus to suddenly fall in love with Lukashenka again, or for Moscow to send a "carriage" full of money to Minsk (I guess, someone still remembers how, in 1994, Kebich promised such a carriage from Moscow). It is impossible to stay at home.

By all appearances, the main issue that Lukashenka could discuss in Sochi is not financial support for Minsk. Thus, Lukashenka's hopes will not come true. And it does not matter who will be the interlocutor of the Belarusian leader, as the situation is clearly out of control. The migration pressure organized by Lukashenka has not reached the level of a regional crisis (the Belarusians failed, as usual), but has managed to form a political "boomerang", which flies not only to Minsk but also to Moscow.

Although, Lukashenka can only meet his friends from Qatar, ask for money, and wave goodbye to Moscow, get on the plane and fly home.