He has been pleading “not to betray him” for a year now.
According to Siarhei Chaly, the speed of “getting rid of the elbasy” in Kazakhstan, the rapid debunking of the previous leader seriously worries the Belarusian ruler. The analyst expressed this opinion in the new edition of Chaly live:
“I think it hurts him to watch the amazing speed with which the gilding of Nazarbayev’s personality cult fades,” the analyst notes. “By the way, the most caricature features, with the installation of statues, the placement of quotes, the renaming of the capital, this cult of personality began to acquire after 2019, when Nazarbayev announced his departure.
And since all this was superficial, it faded, relatively speaking, in three days, and no one remembers the “father of the nation”, and, most likely, the city of Nur-Sultan will be renamed back.
Of course, watching this hurts Lukashenka. After all, for a year now he has been asking “not to betray” not only him, but not to betray his “legacy” - they say, look, I invented so much victory-madness for you, including the fake Day of National Unity, the window-dressing “Stalin Line”, which had no military-strategic significance...
However, in reality, we are not talking about the memory of the heroes of the war, but about the memory of a person who parasitizes on the heroes of the war.
And I am sure that he himself understands how instantly all this will dissipate - there is no support behind him, they will turn away in the first minute. Revisionism will be the content of the next political epoch at the slightest sign of withdrawal.
Therefore, now not to us, but to him, this collective Lukashenka, they are telling how we will all be faithful to him, and if he plucks his courage for any of the transit options, my forecast is that we will see the Kazakhstani events copied identically, the same doxology and chanting.
The weak link in the economic chain
“The future economic crisis is inevitable,” emphasizes Siarhei Chaly. “When people come to power, whose task is only to control the flows, “sit” on them, but not create value, the crisis is embedded in the very model.
Therefore, the main issue of the Belarusian economy, according to the analyst, is not whether there will be a crisis, but how intense it will be and through what channel it will go:
- Now there is a struggle exclusively between who will be the main lightning rod - whether the lightning will hit the banking system, or there will be a crisis in the real sector of the economy. Although these things are quite interconnected, and if the crisis is somehow intense, it cannot be stopped in any isolated sector, then it will become systemic and take over the entire economy, especially when it comes to problems in the real sector.
And in Belarus, the economic policy is such that disparate departments are engaged in disparate things, thinking about how to make it so that it does not pass through their territory. This gives rise to a variety of “creative” ideas, including the Asset Management Agency, the Deposit Insurance Agency, maternity capital, and the like.
What is expected for the next year is that we will not observe any growth, the World Bank recently predicted that there would be an economic recession more likely, and it is important how the population will feel it.
The economic pain from a 3% decline over two years (crisis of 2015-2016) turned out to be so strong that it created several irreversible decay processes, local “poverty traps” in the Belarusian economy at the regional level.
The repetition of something like this will mean that this mold will spread to the rest of the territory.