“Who will believe that Ukraine attacked Belarus without rhyme or reason?”

The Russian journalist estimated the probability of provocation with the participation of our country.

Leonid Radzikhovsky, the Russian journalist, called the information about the war in Ukraine a fantastic fake.

- There will be no war. This is fake news, a fantastically publicized story that is beneficial to all parties that use this story to promote themselves,” Radzikhovsky said on the air of the channel “I Gryanul Grem”. - This story was beneficial for Putin until he composed his crazy ultimatum, senseless at all.

According to the analyst, Putin is busy with his international PR in the field of geopolitics, since he is “dumb, difficult and very boring” to deal with domestic affairs, writes gazetaby.com.

- These are slow and ineffective things, and it is almost impossible to move anything in the economy, in the social sphere, etc. However, in international politics it is easy to declare and claim. Putin likes the role of the Great and Terrible, the most powerful man in the world, a kind of Voldemort. Moreover, he started playing and delivered a completely inadequate ultimatum to America, without understanding, what he wants.

Did he really expect to be told: from now on, we will take new NATO members, only with your consent, Vladimir Vladimirovich. Alternatively, maybe he meant some kind of a crafty plan. Nothing of the kind! He had no crafty plan. The complete confusion of Russian propaganda shows it clearly, we did not hear "If they do not accept our plan, will be then such!" as it is used to shout. What is it, what will be? Nothing will happen.

This is absolutely fake news, this is a huge puddle in which Putin found himself with the full delight of the West. The story is incredibly blew up and hyped. And when it comes to purely PR matters, no one will distinguish defeat from victory. Both sides do nothing but defeat each other.

The journalist also proved the incapacity of the popular version of the provocation with the participation of Belarus.

- As for the provocation from Lukashenka's side, for example, in the same style as he did with the Kurds. It could look like this: there are new Kurds who rush to the border, the Ukrainians shoot at them, after which Lukashenka shouts: “Ouch, I was offended, forward, attack!”

This option seems extremely unlikely to me, because Putin enjoys some support from the population, not very enthusiastic but still, but the support group of the “bat'ka” is much less than half of the population in Belarus.

It would be too much for Lukashenka to arrange provocation in this situation and to get in a war, shortly before еру outlined referendum, . Besides, what madman would believe that Ukraine quite irrelevantly decided to attack Belarus? I don’t believe in such a very strange option at all,” Radzikhovsky noted.

He insists that the conditions necessary for starting a war do not exist at all.

- As for the real war, the invasion of Russia into the territory of Ukraine is impossible for a lot of reasons. And sanctions are far from the main thing. Putin cannot go to war for much simpler reasons. It would be a hard war if he invaded, and Russia is absolutely unready for hard wars. Regular units should fight here with heavy losses.

Russian society is completely unprepared for a war against Ukraine.

The idea, which can influence social opinion in relation of the acceptance of a war against Ukraine should be as follows: we, Russia, are acting on the defensive, Ukrainian "fascists", Bandera attacked the Russian people in the DPR (Donetsk People's Republic), and we had to come to their aid.

But the Ukraine does not want to attack on DPR, well you will not force them! To handle a provocation is easy on the paper and very complicatedly technically. It is almost impossible to make a large scale provocation in which Ukrainians would not participate.

Finally, even if this stupid war started, the Russians got into Ukraine, and what to do with this Ukraine? To take the entire territory, after losing ten and hundreds of people, and to obtain partisan movement through the entire Ukraine?

Capturing only the eastern part is also impossible, because this means destroying the state, dividing it into two parts. And then you will actually obtain teeth crushing sanctions, because to destroy foreign states nowadays is not greeted.

Finally, the last option is to fight in Ukraine simply in Donbass, just to capture three more villages and slightly increase the territory of the DPR.

To sum up: the Minsk agreements are over, Ukraine is a mortally hostile state, you have lost people, received sanctions, but what is the benefit? Two villages captured? What is the reason to act?

This is an aimless, difficult, dead-end, leading nowhere war. It wont happen, the Russian journalist is sure.