People cannot endlessly tolerate a corrupt government.
The Free Russia Forum held a live discussion on the events in Kazakhstan.
The speakers were: co-founder of the Free Russia Forum Garry Kasparov, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Andrei Sannikov, and Kazakhstani political and public figure, one of the opposition leaders Mukhtar Ablyazov.
Andrei Sannikov expressed the opinion that the example of Kazakhstan is proof that changes will take place throughout the post-Soviet space:
- I would like to support Mukhtar Ablyazov, I know that he always said that a revolution is ripening in Kazakhstan, when the whole West said: “This is a model, this is Singapore, everything is fine there, there is Western business, Nazarbayev resigned - the change of power will begin.”
I have always adhered to the fact that in this whole co-operative of dictators that arose in the post-Soviet territory, revolutions are ripening. What happened in Kazakhstan was inevitable. Because the people cannot endlessly endure a corrupt government that constantly mocks them.
Whatever happens, the revolution has already won. Why? Because the power in the person of Tokayev turned out to be national traitors. They called for foreign troops, they called for intervention. No one forgives this, just as people will not forgive Nikol Pashinyan, who used to be a respected person, for signing the decision on the intervention. There will be an uprising in Armenia too, I am sure of that.
This swollen abscess on the body of the former Soviet Union (whatever one may say, still, in many respects, the old nomenklatura remained in power, Kazakhstan is the most striking example), it is already breaking. It will break through with great bang and consequences for those who hold power by force.
The coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign is sure that the West will have to react to the changed situation:
- The club of surprised analysts is growing. It takes its origins in the 90s, when everyone was surprised that the Soviet Union collapsed, although it was clear to everyone that everything was falling apart. At this time, Bush Senior gave his famous “Kyiv cutlet” speech, warning against separatism.
For some reason no one in Ukraine foresaw the events, in Belarus they said: “nothing will change there”. Kazakhstan was generally “a bright spot on the dark map of dictatorships”.
When there was the Cold War, when the West was fighting the Soviet Union, strategic thinking was well developed and was based on well-proven facts and an analysis of the situation. For some reason, after that, either greed, or corruption, stopped all these mental attempts.
I absolutely agree that the geopolitical situation has changed, the West will have to react. The faster it responds, the better.