What we see in exchange offices can hardly be called a foreign exchange rate.
The dollar is now cheaper than it was on February 24. Why is it so and do we have an opportunity to find out the real exchange rate?
After the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the dollar jumped sharply against the Belarusian ruble. However, the dollar is now cheaper than before February 24 - less than Br2.6, writes the thinkingtanks.by website.
Why has the Belarusian and Russian rubles gained in strength and what is their real exchange rate? Russian expert in finance and investment Andrei Movchan answers the question.
"When we talk about the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar, we keep in mind the times when the ruble was convertible. Then there was an open market where one could come, buy a dollar or a ruble, sell a dollar or a ruble, make export-import contracts, keep money in dollars or in rubles.
And since then we have had the notion of the ruble exchange rate. Naturally, now it's not the ruble you can sell or buy at all," the expert stressed.
He pointed out that now the residents are cut off from the market. Companies, which earn foreign currency from export, have to sell a certain percentage of it, and the percentage they keep can only be used in a limited way.
"In these circumstances, there is no currency exchange rate, we can talk about the rate at which the Central Bank is willing to exchange dollars for roubles in a limited way. This rate traditionally continues to be called the exchange rate," believes Andrei Movchan.
Can we understand what the real dollar rate should be now? Andrei Movchan believes there must be freedom to buy a dollar to do that.
"If you answer the question at what price I can buy $5 million and pay to America, it will be the real exchange rate. The correct answer is infinity, because I can't do it," replied the expert.
Let us note that the Belarusian ruble is heavily dependent on the Russian ruble and follows it. Therefore, Movchan's conclusions are also relevant for the Belarusian currency.