15 August 2022, Monday, 9:24
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Ukrainian Political Scientist: Attack On Ukraine Will Result In Overthrow For Lukashenka

Ukrainian Political Scientist: Attack On Ukraine Will Result In Overthrow For Lukashenka

The Belarusian regime is already participating in the war.

The Belarusian army is not ready and does not want to fight against the Armed Forces of Ukraine after what was done with the Russian troops. The Lukashenka regime did not dare to attack when the Ukrainian army did not have NATO weapons, and now such a step would be completely suicidal. Minsk's attack on Kyiv could lead to the military defeat of Belarus and the overthrow of Lukashenka. Political scientist and economic expert Taras Zahorodny stated it to the Glavred news publisher.

Answering the question about whether Lukashenka would decide on a ground operation against Ukraine and what it would mean for Belarus, he said that Minsk is already involved in the conflict, and the state will have to bear responsibility.

According to him, Lukashenka is unlikely to dare to wage a war against Ukraine. The Belarusian army does not have the desire, ability and readiness to fight the Ukrainian troops. Especially after what happened to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the war with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Firstly, closed polls of Belarusian military have already been conducted about whether they are ready to fight against Ukraine - 95% of those surveyed replied negatively. Why? The Russian army has always been the authority for them but after they saw what Ukrainians did to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, saw the mountains of corpses that were taken to Belarus, saw the torn off arms and legs of the wounded that were in Belarusian hospitals, then the Belarusian military began to ask a natural question: if the Ukrainians are doing this to the strong Russian army, then what will they do to us? After all, unlike the Russian army, the Belarusian army has no combat experience at all. In addition, they have outdated Soviet military equipment. Thus, Belarusians have no motivation to fight against Ukrainians," Zahorodny noted and clarified that it is difficult to find moments in history when Ukrainians and Belarusians fought.

Furthermore, he pointed out that the Belarusian army is comparable in size to the number of military personnel with the border guards of the State Border Service of Ukraine.

“The number of Belarusian military personnel: the Armed Forces of Belarus are comparable to our Border Service, it means that there are very few of them, about 5 thousand,” Zahorodny says.

Moreover, if the Belarusian state did not dare to attack Ukraine in a situation where Kyiv did not have NATO weapons, then now, when such weapons are already present, the prospects for the troops of the Republic of Belarus are very vague.

"Thirdly, if Belarus could not or did not dare to attack Ukraine when we did not have NATO weapons, then now to attack, when we have the most modern systems and weapons, it will be simply suicidal for the state. The Belarusian military leadership is well aware of all this," the expert believes.

Also, Lukashenka may lose those who support his ruling regime in Belarus in case of unleashing war against Ukraine. There is a risk of losing power for Lukashenka himself. As a result, a Belarusian liberation army may appear, which will go to liberate the territory of its state.

“Fourthly, Lukashenka is keen on his power. He is not an idiot despite the fact that he is a bloody dictator and a criminal. He clearly understands: yes, he can give the order to attack Ukraine. But the question arises: Who will go to execute the order? Only the most devoted to him units who follow any Lukashenka's orders will do it. They will definitely be destroyed in Ukraine. And then the question is: what, in fact, will Lukashenka be left with, how will he keep power in Belarus if the most loyal units die? But participation in a war always serves as a trigger for protests against the authorities inside a country. In this case, Lukashenka will have nothing to say. Belarusian military will see the whole situation and ask why they have to die, if it is easier to resolve the issue with one person in Belarus. Armed people are not afraid of blood. If Belarusian military enters the territory of Ukraine, then there will be a very high risk that they will simply surrender, and in this way, a liberation army of Belarus will be created, and then they will go to liberate their homeland," Taras Zahorodny explained.

It follows from the expert's explanations that the Belarusian troops will suffer a crushing defeat, which will lead to the collapse of Belarus, if Lukashenko dares to unleash a war against Ukraine.

"The General Staff of Belarus is very closely monitoring what is happening in Ukraine. Lukashenka is well aware of everything: he knows about mobile units, that Ukrainians destroy their enemy, and so on. Of course, there is always the possibility of a stupid act, but no dumbest was noticed in Lukashenka's actions previously. Therefore, most likely, he still will not risk unleashing a war with Ukraine, because this will mean the collapse of Belarus. Moreover, now there is already a “greenfield”, which means that going from Belarus through the forests is suicide: Belarusian troops will simply be shot point-blank there,” Taras Zahorodni emphasized.