NYT: Russian Army Shortfalls Benefiting Effective AFU Counteroffensive

Decisive weeks are coming for Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine may enter a turning point if the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to take advantage of a number of personnel and technical problems that have accumulated in the Russian army following the results of five months of the war.

New Time writes with the reference to The New York Times article.

“Assessments by American and Western intelligence indicate that the next weeks or months will be critical for Ukraine. "Even if Russian forces cannot be pushed back significantly, a strong counteroffensive could increase confidence among Ukraine’s allies," NYT emphasizes.

The publication indicates two main reasons that are already slowing down Russian attacks and giving the Armed Forces more chances for the success of counteroffensive operations. The occupying army faces “severe equipment and manpower problems”.

In the early phase of the war in Ukraine, shortages of soldiers and problems with equipment forced Russia to narrow its mission, abandon its assault on Kyiv and focus its offensive on the east. But unlike earlier in the war, it could become harder for Russia to reset its strategy and recover, at least in the short term" writes NYT.

These estimates are consistent with a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. The August 4 ISW report indicated that Ukraine managed to seize the strategic initiative in the war with Russia, which forced the Russian army to redistribute forces and change priorities in response to the counteroffensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"Ukraine’s preparations for the counteroffensive in Kherson and the initial operations in that counteroffensive combined with the dramatic weakening of Russian forces generally appear to be allowing Ukraine to begin actively shaping the course of the war for the first time," the ISW analysts emphasized.

"Volunteers" recruitment and manpower issues of the Russian army

American and European sources of the New York Times recall: Vladimir Putin has shown no indications that he wants any sort of full-scale draft, but few powers have conquered a country and destroyed an opposing army with a mostly volunteer force.

At the same time, NATO officials and other Western representatives believe that this problem is now becoming more and more tangible for the Russian army: the reality on the ground should force the Russian military to slow its operations to reinforce depleted units, better protect its supply lines and move in new equipment.” At the same time the sources of publication assume that Mr. Putin could override the advice of his officers and order the drive in the east to continue through the summer.

However, the Russian army has too many manpower issues, the NYT lists:

according to Pentagon estimates, Russia has committed nearly 85 percent of its fielded army to the fight in Ukraine, drawing on troops from the country’s far east and deployments around the world;

the losses of the Russian army at the first stage of the war are enormous, they have not yet been compensated for (even the most modest estimates of Western countries range from 15,000 to more than 20,000 killed invaders, and thousands more are wounded or missing - that is, Russia has already lost more soldiers than the USSR in a decade of war in Afghanistan);

the Russian Federation is facing problems with the recruitment of reservists and recruits (Western intelligence indicates a significant reduction in the requirements for Russians who are ready to join the ranks of the troops. Russia has eliminated the age limit for Russians to sign their first contract to join the military. The Russian military is lowering health and fitness standards and giving waivers to people with criminal records to join.);

NYT sources claim that Russia's attempts to compensate for the lack of manpower with mercenaries from Wagner PMCs are unsuccessful. American intelligence reports have said that while mercenaries could make a difference in specific battles, there are not enough of them to make a strategic difference in the larger war.

even if Russia decided to press more reservists and conscripts into service, Western intelligence officials say Mr. Putin would face a severe bottleneck. Many Russian officers and instructors who could train them have already been sent to the front (one of the NYT intelligence sources compared this erroneous decision of the authorities of the Russian Federation to "eating the seeds"). "Russia delayed its spring draft by two months, a sign it could not train those who were willing to serve," the publication writes.

Occupiers face difficulties with military equipment

"While not as acute as its manpower shortage, Russian equipment problems are significant," NYT said.

Here are the main issues:

Russian forces have had to replace newer, more modern tanks with older versions (by some intelligence estimates, Russia has lost a third of its tanks);

they have problems despite the huge stocks of artillery shells: according to Western intelligence officials, many are ageing and were stored in poor conditions, reducing their effectiveness by making their fuses unreliable;

U.S. and European sanctions have effectively put pressure on Russian arms manufacturers, at least temporarily, forcing them to slow or halt production of high-end guided and other advanced munitions;

the shortage of such ammunition is forcing the Russians to reduce the choice of targets; according to NYT, this was one of the reasons why the Russian army has now limited its attacks on moving columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and instead focused on stationary targets, trying to hit Ukrainian warehouses;

Russia has been using an antiaircraft system, the S-300, to strike ground targets (for example in the Mykolaiv region, a sign, Ukrainian officials said, that Russia lacks missiles better suited for such attacks;

the new Ukrainian tactics using HIMARS and other Western weapons (attacks on rear headquarters and ammunition depots, fuel, etc.) also effectively reduced the number of shells available to Russian troops on the front line.

Brig. Christopher King, the top British officer at the Western Weapons Distribution Center for Ukraine in Stuttgart, confirmed the latter fact once again in NYT commentary. According to him, HIMARS and other weapons attacks allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine "to slow the Russians’ “ability to supply themselves, which is exactly why we provided that to them".

Challenges and chances for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Ukrainian army also suffered losses in artillery, tanks and manpower during the five months of the war. However, as an unnamed senior Ukrainian military official reminded that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had far more officers with years of frontline fighting experience, which proved decisive in the first phase of the war.

The edition writes, citing Western intelligence estimates, that the next weeks or months will be critical for Ukraine. At the same time, official Kyiv is aware that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a very limited amount of time to take advantage of Russia's current apparent weaknesses, British sources told the publication after conversations with Ukrainian officials.

The NYT also cites the opinion of two congressmen who recently visited Kyiv as part of a delegation of American lawmakers. Both of them confirmed that Ukraine will indeed try to take an opportunity. They are preparing for a counteroffensive.

“The Russians are exhausted, and you don’t want to give them time to regroup and rest. I understand the desire to strike when they’re tired,” said Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.

Republican Michael Waltz, a former soldier and now a member of the House of Representatives, said the United States should send more rocket artillery and other advanced weaponry to Ukraine. “Zelensky believes the Russians are in a moment of weakness while they regroup to keep grinding forward before winter,” Mr. Waltz said.