There’s No Reason To Be Sensitive With Lukashenka

Why did the EU decide to impose new sanctions now?

The correspondent of Radio Liberty in Brussels, citing documents he received, reports that the European Union has prepared a new package of sanctions against Belarus because of its role in supporting a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The proposed sanctions largely duplicate restrictions that the EU has already imposed on Russia, in particular on the energy sector and the export of key technologies. New restrictive steps against Belarus are planned to be linked to the 10th package of sanctions against Russia.

Both documents are scheduled to be adopted next week. Although, according to previous information, the 10th package of sanctions against Russia was supposed to be adopted at the end of February.

It is important to note that the document provides for the possibility of using so-called ‘secondary sanctions’. That is, it will allow the EU to prosecute those who help to bypass the sanctions imposed on Belarusian individuals and legal entities.

It is worth mentioning that the information is unofficial so far and we are talking about an intention, a project. A consensus of all 27 EU member states is needed to make a decision. It cannot be ruled out that some state (for example, Hungary) will block the new package.

The adoption of new sanctions against Belarus was announced by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on the 10th of January. The details have just surfaced.

It is noteworthy that the EU has not imposed new sanctions against Belarus since June last year, although such restrictions have been adopted against Russia several times during this time. The EU indicated that it does not find the guilt of Belarus in Russia’s war against Ukraine with this approach, sees the difference in the approaches of Moscow and Minsk, takes into account that the Belarusian army is not directly involved in the aggression. Therefore, the Russian Federation received much stronger sanctions than Belarus. And this differentiation of the EU gave Lukashenka a chance to retreat.

It should be noted that recently the participation of Belarus in the war against Ukraine has decreased. Since October, the Belarusian territory has not been used by Russia to launch missiles or drones. According to the latest information from Ukrainian intelligence, the number of Russian troops in Belarus has decreased to about 5,000.

Then there is a question, why did the EU decide to impose new sanctions against Belarus today? It is difficult to answer this question correctly. We can only announce versions.

It is possible that there have been discussions over the past six months between various European countries about whether it is worth punishing the Belarusian regime with new sanctions. And now, as a result of disputes, the European leaders are ready for a consolidated decision. Brussels saw that Lukashenka does not send his army to war but he does not want to distance himself from Russia as well. That was probably expected.

In addition, the logic of conflict is at work. The status quo cannot be maintained for a long time during a long confrontation. The military conflict is heading towards reconciliation, or towards escalation. We have just the last case. The parties to the conflict have no time for soft treatment, subtleties and nuances in this situation.

The war in Ukraine has become a war of attrition. The bet is inevitably placed on the exhaustion of the enemy and the allies in this state of affairs. It is no coincidence that the 10th package of sanctions applies not only to Belarus, but also to another Russian ally - Iran.

I think there is one more reason that has become the trigger for new EU sanctions. This is the internal policy of the Lukashenka regime. The regime has launched a whole system of measures aimed at strengthening political terror against the opposition. As well as a set of measures against foreign funds, refusal to pay debts to creditors in foreign currency, etc. This evolution of the regime towards totalitarianism and a conscious rejection of the rules and regulations of the world economic system has become another reason for the transition to a tougher conversation with official Minsk.

Valery Karbalevich, Radio Liberty