British Intelligence Points Out Weakness Of New Russian Offensive

The timing of the attack is wrong.

According to British intelligence, weather continues to play a significant role in Russia's war against Ukraine. While the ground has frozen over, the conditions for moving across rugged terrain in the east have probably not changed much in recent weeks.

An agency summary on Twitter says that the surface temperature was around 0 degrees Celsius on February 8.

According to forecasts, rising ground temperatures and melting snow are likely to worsen conditions for moving across the Donbass next week.

As the intelligence notes, the conditions for moving across rugged terrain are likely to get worse, with more mud, in mid- and late March.

Commanders on both sides will probably try to avoid planning major offensive operations at this time, the agency adds.

"However, political or operational opportunities may prevail over these concerns, as Russia demonstrated when it launched its invasion in late February 2022," the briefing states.