Arkady Moshes: All Bridges For Lukashenka Are Burned

The decision to deploy nuclear weapons indicates panic in the Kremlin.

Director of the Eastern Partnership program of the EU and Russia at the Finnish Institute of International Relations Arkady Moshes commented on the statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

In an interview with Radio Svaboda, Arkady Moshes noted that Russia's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is another illogical step in the field of military policy:

We have seen many such movements in recent years. Until recently, I did not think that such a decision would be made. Because there is no point in pushing nuclear weapons closer to NATO borders, because Russia has the Kaliningrad region and these weapons can be deployed there without involving another state in the game. I don't see any special military and military-political sense in the current decision.

But the fact that it was nevertheless adopted testifies to the nervous, if not to say panic, mood of the Kremlin. The Kremlin realized that his threats to use nuclear weapons were beginning to resemble the well-known fairy tale about the boy who shouted “Wolves, wolves!” But in the fairy tale, the wolves finally came. They probably won't come here. This is an attempt to destabilize the situation in order to frighten those people in the West who tend to be afraid. However, I think that in terms of intimidating the West, this measure will not have much effect.

As for the Belarusian-Russian relations, the effect will be minimal until Minsk has the right to a “second key”, the right to participate in decision-making on the use of these weapons. Of course, Belarusian propaganda will make a picture out of this, according to which Belarus is becoming the same influential nuclear power as Russia.

According to the expert, since the Russians will control these weapons, and therefore decide on their use, Lukashenka will have even less influence on what is happening in the country.

“If the construction of storage facilities for nuclear weapons began to be built some time ago, then the dots over them were actually placed even earlier. By and large, Lukashenka does not need to be asked about these steps,” the expert notes and adds that the desire for a nuclear-free status has become more and more difficult for politicians. “Until 2020, Lukashenka could agree with the West on Russia's desire to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. Like, you see, the Kremlin is putting pressure on me, maybe you will give me something, and I will resist these plans. But after 2020, after the hijacking, after the migration crisis, after the entry into the war, the bridges with the West were burned. And this trading factor no longer exists.

The expert notes that Putin's explanation of the reasons for deploying tactical nuclear weapons looks unconvincing. Recall that he said that he took such a step because of the supply of non-nuclear weapons to Ukraine.

“I don't think that's the reason. Russia could also respond to shells with depleted uranium with shells with depleted uranium, it has plenty of them,” the expert believes. “The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus is due to the fact that nuclear intimidation has ceased to work. That is why Moscow is trying to show that it is not joking or bluffing. One who tends to be afraid will be afraid. And those who don’t will not. Tactical nuclear weapons are a nasty thing, but there is a big psychological problem with their use. An important point of the situation is how Belarus will react to the deployment of nuclear weapons on its territory, which it will not control. After Chernobyl and everything that happened to Belarus, I don’t think that many Belarusians will take it as a “hooray”.