The West has already set priorities.
Lithuanian military expert, retired Colonel Vaidotas Malinionis considers statements about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus as a signal for escalation.
“When Russia doesn’t do well on the battlefield, that’s exactly what we see: they resort to various psychological bluffing operations, like, for example, about being ready to produce 1600 tanks a year. They also always recall their nuclear arsenal,” Malinionis said on Radio NV. “In this context, the statement on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus is a clear signal.
And the EU has already reacted. Josep Borrell stressed that this, of course, is a threat. He called the Lukashenka regime responsible for what is happening and expressed the hope that this decision will not be finally made.
At the same time, Lukashenka and his regime must understand that in these circumstances, his military infrastructure and facilities in general become legitimate targets for the NATO forces.
At the same time, Colonel Malinionis believes that NATO's reaction will be moderate towards Belarus.
“I don't think there will be a real military response against Belarus. But Putin should be reminded that if he decides to use Belarus for nuclear weapons, the target does not matter - Ukraine, Poland or Lithuania, NATO will deliver an answer with conventional weapons, in which it has a huge advantage.
It will cause the destruction of the entire navy and all possible Russian firing points, including on the territory of Ukraine.”
At the same time, the retired colonel recalled that it was not the first time when Belarus escalated in relation to Lithuania.
“Back in 2021, as a military specialist, I said that migrants from Belarus are an act of military aggression.
I very much regret that at that time our politicians failed to assess that threat, did not listen to military experts and did not apply Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty on consultations in a case when the security of any of the Parties is threatened.
This mistake eventually became a problem. If consultations had been announced then, we would have managed to develop a unified strategy of the NATO countries regarding the threats from Belarus,” the Lithuanian Colonel assured.