SSU Major General: Volunteers Will Be Able To Enter Belarus Easily

Lukashenka opens Pandora's box.

The BBC Ukraine analyzed the combat readiness of the Lukashenka army and the ability to make a new march on Kyiv.

How is the military potential of the Lukashenka army assessed in Ukraine today? Charter97.org spoke about this with the former Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU), Reserve Major General Viktor Yahun:

— The thing is that the Lukashenka army is, roughly speaking, 10 brigades and security services. If they do go into combat, all they can do is take one district center in Ukraine. They cannot provide a full-fledged front, they cannot even be a second line, because they are simply not enough for some large-scale operations. They seem to have the potential, but they have no combat experience.

Lukashenka has embarked on such an adventure and allowed Russia to recruit Belarusian citizens who have served in the army, in some special forces or law enforcement agencies. They can sign a contract and mobilize into the Russian army.

Why would he do that? Firstly, it is his bow to Russia, they say, look, I give you my people, how many of them will be there — I don't know, but they are there. Secondly, Lukashenka has a certain number of people who have experience in combat operations, if they, of course, return after their contract will be over.

At the same time, Lukashenko does not take into account several factors: how many people will return alive, and how many will arrive in coffins, what social reaction will follow this, and whether he will able to look people in their eyes. Although, I think he doesn't care, but the fact itself will already mean something.

Ukraine does not consider the participation of the Belarusian army in the war seriously at the moment for many reasons. There is a lot to say, starting from the economic aspects, that for Lukashenka it is all just unprofitable. If he enters the war, then Ukraine begins to bomb his oil refineries, some weapons production plants, and these targets are much closer than anywhere beyond the Urals. And there will be nothing left of its economic potential, which is already not very huge.

This opens a Pandora's box in terms of the fact that Belarusians who are fighting on the side of Ukraine can easily enter the territory of Belarus and begin some guerrilla actions. Does Lukashenko need it? Does he think he can handle them? Russia could not cope when similar units entered its territory in the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

— The article pays special attention to the fact that Russia has exported a lot of weapons and ammunition from Belarus. To what extent is the Belarusian army provided in this regard or does it simply have nothing to fight with?

— If we talk about ammunition, I do not think that everything has been taken away. Stocks have decreased significantly, this is unequivocal. But if the Lukashenka army takes part in hostilities, they are counting on logistics from Russia, not on their own. It will not act autonomously, it will actually be part of the Russian army.

And everything else, with equipment and other things — what Lukashenka did not need, he threw into Russia, cleared the warehouses. I don't know if he got anything new there. Well, let's say they gave him these S-300, S-400 or Iskanders, but, as practice shows, they burn no worse than other equipment.

— The Lithuanian Foreign Minister said last week that Ukraine has the right to hit Russian military targets on the territory of Belarus. Do you think that if Russia assembles a military fist in Belarus to attack Kyiv, will the Ukrainian forces preemptively attack it?

— Of course, they will, for sure. No one and nothing closer than 10 kilometers to the border with Ukraine will come just like that.