‘Russia Was Caught Off Guard’

The huge Russian military machine turned out to be completely unprepared.

Ukrainian troops advanced even further into the Kursk region. In less than three days, they managed to take control of a vast territory.

Military expert, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kyiv Oleksiy Melnyk, shared his assessment of the events with the Charter97.org website:

— There are several comments. Firstly, at the moment there is not a single official comment from the Ukrainian side. And secondly, there are no comments from the direct participants either. Therefore, all our attempts to analyze the situation are based on what, so to speak, Russian military bloggers are screaming about, although this is not exactly a literary word.

Plus absolutely contradictory and untrue comments from Russian officials. I mean that we have very limited information from the Ukrainian side and can only indirectly assess what various Russian sources are saying.

As for the readiness/unreadiness of the Russians for such a turn of events, one can judge in two dimensions. Firstly, Russia was taken by surprise, the Russian leadership absolutely did not expect such actions from Ukraine, I do not mean in military terms, but rather in political terms. I mean the statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova and the appeals to the international community that Ukraine allegedly attacked Russia, plus Putin's statements that this was a provocation. This speaks of complete surprise from the point of view of Russia, what Ukraine can afford without crossing the “red lines” that are drawn either by our Western partners or by Moscow itself.

The second effect of surprise and unexpectedness was that this entire huge Russian military machine turned out to be absolutely unprepared to defend its own territory. The ease with which a relatively small military group penetrated to such depth and continued to move for three days shows that all these myths about the invincibility of the Russian army, which existed before the war and which have existed for the last few months against the backdrop of Russia's constant creeping advance, do not correspond to reality. Russia is vulnerable, and the task is only to find these vulnerable points.

— Why did Ukraine need this operation? What could be its main goals?

— As for the goals of the operation, it seems to me that at the moment, except for those who were directly involved in the planning and are now engaged in the implementation of this plan, hardly anyone can say with certainty what the final goal of this operation is and what the intermediate goals might be.

We can now only discuss some versions that have already been put forward. If we take political goals, then this is most likely an attempt by the Ukrainian side to strengthen its negotiating positions for future negotiations. From a military point of view, this is an attempt or, let's say, a plan to seize the initiative on the front line with asymmetric actions and, possibly, reverse the negative trend that has been developing for more than six months.

We can outline the following conclusions. As for the set boundaries or the duration of this operation, here, most likely, the decision will be made according to the situation.

— Russian Z-bloggers have started to blame even Lukashenka for what is happening. What could this be connected with?

— This is a traditional Russian occupation — to find who is to blame. There are many points on which Lukashenka can be accused, but certainly not of supporting Ukraine, here he has a complete alibi.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com