ISW: Russia Has Entered The First Phase Of Preparations For War With NATO
5- 7.10.2025, 9:50
- 13,894
The Kremlin's goals have been named.
The Kremlin is creating conditions to justify and mobilize public support for any possible future Russian aggression against NATO.
Russia is accelerating the information and psychological preparation phase - "Phase 0" - of its campaign to prepare for a possible future war with NATO. This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The analysts note that on October 6, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service said that the United Kingdom plans to organize an attack by a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.
"The October 6 statement by the SVR follows similar false statements by the SVR against European states such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia, and in recent weeks the SVR has become more frequent in making such statements, indicating a new pattern of concerted action," the analysts wrote.
They emphasize that Russia appears to be preparing as part of a phase of creating physical and psychological conditions for military contingencies. That said, Russian attacks have increased significantly since the fall of 2025 - the most notable sign being drone incursions into NATO airspace:
"This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered the first phase of preparation - 'Phase 0' - to move to a higher level of warfare than that in which Russia is currently engaged, such as a future NATO-Russia war."
At the same time, ISW is not currently assessing whether the Kremlin has decided to engage in a more aggressive war or the timeframe in which it might do so.
"Russia is pursuing long-term plans that ISW assesses may be part of preparations for a future NATO-Russia war, such as restructuring Russian military districts on its western border and building up military bases on its border with Finland. ISW has observed no indication that Russia is actively preparing for an imminent conflict with NATO at this time," they note.
They point out that through such provocations, Russia seeks to spread fear among the European population and undermine NATO's resolve. And the wide range of types and locations of attacks is intended to create a perception that the threat of violence is spreading throughout Europe.
"Russia seeks to use fear in Europe to gain concessions in its war against Ukraine and possible future war with NATO... Russia is also trying to push Europe to reduce or end its current efforts to strengthen its defenses out of fear that these efforts will provoke Russian attacks... The Kremlin is creating conditions to justify and mobilize public support for any possible future Russian aggro
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