FT: The Kremlin Fears Losing Control Over Central Asia

The war in Ukraine has undermined the position of the Russian Federation in this region.

An internal report by the Russian government, which was presented back in April 2024, showed how Russia's war against Ukraine had damaged ties with some of its closest allies.

According to the Finansial Times, the analysis admits that Western sanctions pressure was able to drive a wedge between the Kremlin and its close trading partners. The report reads that Moscow's ambitions are to restore access to world trade, putting Russia at the center of the Eurasian trade bloc, which will compete with the spheres of economic influence of the United States, the EU and China.

Russia sees creating the “macroregion” as an important long-term project, which would outlast any talks with the west over the future of Ukraine, to help strengthen its footing on the “global arena,” the report reads.

"The new bloc would connect Russia to the global south by giving each side access to raw materials, developing financial and transport ties, and uniting them through a common “world view [ . . .] where we write rule for the new world [and have] our own sanctions policy,” the report claims.

At the same time, the report reads that Western countries have successfully threatened the countries of Central Asia, forcing them to comply with sanctions using a “carrot-and-stick” approach. Meanwhile, Russia's allies have benefited from the sanctions, pushing Russian businesses out of their home jurisdictions.

The report admits Russia will have to “play the long game” to keep central Asian countries in its orbit. The document also states that Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine will not be enough to end Western sanctions pressure. “Close relations with a country [like Russia] will be a source of difficulties,” the report reads.

The countries will have to “make a decision on their stance towards Russia”.

The publication noted that Kazakhstan, which has the largest economy in the region, condemned Russia's war against Ukraine, refused to recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories and attempted to demonstrate compliance with Western sanctions. However, neighboring Kyrgyzstan decisively sided with the Russian Federation and became an important point on the way to evading Western sanctions.

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