‘There Are Two Options For How Trump Will Act’

Is Putin disrupting the negotiations?

US President Donald Trump has made several statements in recent days about progress in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin says that it has not received any good offers from the US. Today, Kyiv was attacked with ballistic missiles. Is Putin interested in these negotiations?

The Charter97.org website spoke about this and more with Slovak political scientist and President of the Institute of Public Affairs (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov:

— I think he is, of course, interested in negotiations, but only on his own terms. What Putin is doing now is essentially preparing for the fact that if the negotiations take place (apparently, they really will take place), he will take a tough position. What is happening now is a demonstration of force and intimidation.

Putin wants the end of this nightmare to be a sufficient result that Trump could then brag about. But I am not sure that the US President will agree with this approach. At the same time, it is worth noting that there is clearly not enough information right now, we do not know what is happening behind the scenes.

Trump's representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, recently flew to Moscow, so we learned that his field of activity has expanded to Russia. This shows how Donald Trump generally approaches such issues. There is a lot of improvisation.

It is clear that the release of US citizen Vogel will bring Trump political points, but it is difficult to say yet how this will be connected with the upcoming negotiations on Ukraine and Russia. Since the release of hostages (and the Americans held there are actually hostages) has nothing to do with the Russian-Ukrainian war.

So I do not think that Trump will agree to any concessions on Ukraine (if he even thinks about concessions) precisely as a reward for the release of the American man. The Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia's aggression — this is a completely independent agenda. And the demonstration of such seemingly friendly gestures from the Kremlin, I think, will not have any practical significance in the sense that America will then soften its position on the war in Ukraine.

— And what could the release of this American man and the promise to release the second one be connected with? What can the US offer Russia in return?

— That's exactly the question. I think that Trump has rather strange ideas about the Russian-Ukrainian war in itself. But if Russia hopes that the release of Vogel and another American will lead to a more accommodating attitude from Trump on the issues of the Russian-Ukrainian war (accommodating from Russia's point of view), then it seems to me that Russia is mistaken.

Trump, of course, is a trader, a transactional figure — something for something, so the release could be connected, say, with some Russians who are in America. I don't have any specific information, but it would be logical if suddenly some people who are, for example, under investigation in the US and are connected to Russia, were released from something.

But linking a global issue, Russia's war against Ukraine, with the release of American hostages is absolutely disproportionate.

— How will Trump act if the negotiations are disrupted by Russia?

— Based on what we have already seen and heard from Trump, and his approach in general, I think there are two options, one more likely, the second less, but both are possible. The first option is to strengthen economic sanctions. He talked about this, although not all of his words are put into practice, but nevertheless he mentioned the possibility of imposing sanctions on Russia. This could be one of the answers.

And the second option is to transfer more effective American weapons to Ukraine. You probably noticed that a couple of days ago a bill was introduced in Congress that, if passed, would allow the US President to use the Lend-Lease mechanism to supply weapons to Ukraine. This bill, by the way, was proposed by a Republican.

Again, the question remains how decisive Trump will be, because so far it does not seem to me that he is inclined to do anything related to the continuation of military actions. He constantly talks about peace, but peace between whom and whom? Peace between the aggressor, who has already captured part of the territory, and the victim of aggression? A just peace can only exist if the victim defends themselves. And if the aggressor wins, then what kind of peace is that?

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