Military Analyst: Putin May Deploy a 100,000-Strong Force In Belarus

There is a threat to Ukraine and the Baltic states.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia would deploy troops on the territory of Belarus, and then begin to threaten Poland and the Baltic countries. According to the Ukrainian president, Belarus can be fully drawn into the war.

Charter97.org asked Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military and political observer of the Information Resistance group, to comment on Zelensky's statement:

— Russia has already deployed a strike group on the territory of Belarus to invade Ukraine, it generally uses this practice.

On the other hand, for Europe, there is a serious threat that a pause may be taken in the war between Russia and Ukraine, let's call it a "truce", which Russia will use to restore its combat capability and accumulate resources.

Let me give you an example: now the grouping of Russian occupation troops in Ukraine is 680,000 troops. At the same time, their mobilization potential is 35,000-40,000 troops per month.

This allows them to compensate for almost zero monthly losses. That is, how much they lose — so much they compensate by mobilization.

Now imagine for a moment a year of "truce": there are no active hostilities, the Russian army does not suffer any losses, but the system continues to work. For a year, Russia can replenish the resource to 500 thousand only due to the mobilization system.

Well, we get: the ground forces are 680,000 plus 500,000 — this is almost 1,200,000. Where can Putin afford to send a 100,000-strong group? Without problems, he will be able to place this amount within a year on the territory of Belarus. Gradually increasing and accumulating it.

How does he then use it? That's the second question. Either for a strike on Ukraine (a march on Kyiv 2.0), or for threats to Europe: the Suwalki Corridor, the Baltic countries. Putin's ambitions are the ambitions of a sick person.

— Lukashenka allowed Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus. What will be the reaction of the West and Ukraine?

— The reaction can be diplomatic. Any other, for example, of a military nature will not follow, if there is no corresponding reason on the part of Belarus.

I would say that these will not be so much bases as military camps. Even at the field level, they will simply need somewhere to deploy it if a corresponding strike group is amassed.

When Wagner PMCs left for Belarus, it was a quickly formed field camp. I repeat, somewhere this number of people they will need to accommodate. I see that everything comes to this.

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