Alexander Kovalenko: This Is A Real Disgrace For Putin

The Russian army is degenerating.

Russia is suffering colossal losses in manpower and equipment. According to the AFU General Staff, the Russian army has lost nearly one million military personnel killed or wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion. The BBC reports that 2024 has become a record year in terms of casualties.

The military observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko gave his assessment of what is happening on the front to the Charter97.org website:

- The Russian army is degenerating. Their battalion tactical groups have a colossal shortage of military equipment - primarily tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Any assault action must be accompanied by an attack, first of all by tanks, which with mine trawls clear the way for light armored vehicles. Then come the infantry and support vehicles. All this they simply do not have now. They go to the attack in simple cars, vans, motorcycles or even just scooters. Ammunition is transported by horses, donkeys or simply by hand. Equipment is replaced by colossal human losses.

The Russian army is turning into one big solid marching battalion - that is, a large number of people without the support of enough equipment. And this situation will be much worse than in 2022-2024, and the losses in 2025 will be even greater.

- How long do you think Putin will be able to continue the offensive without carrying out a general mobilization?"

- Not long will he be able to carry out, because the RF has plans for a big offensive for the summer campaign. Putin needs a large amount of human resource. So I would not be at all surprised if on May 9 in Red Square Putin will not only talk about how they heroically in nine months "liberated" the Kursk region, which still has 30 square kilometers of area controlled by the AFU, and express gratitude to Kim Jong-un and North Korean troops for their help in this operation - which is a real shame. In addition to these two points, there may also be a general mobilization announcement. Of course, it won't be called a general mobilization - it will be something along the lines of 2022: "partial mobilization", "partial mobilization 2.0". They may give it another name. Dmitry Peskov has already stuttered about some kind of Stalinist mobilization, so they can disguise it: "The Motherland is in danger, we need more people, we need more defenders of the Motherland, more elite of the country", as they say.

And, accordingly, they will disguise the general mobilization with repressive methods with such terms - names like "Stalinist mobilization", or something similar. They may even call it "Putin's mobilization", because there are not enough people. Now their monthly losses exceed the mobilization system's ability to attract new human resources.

All over Russia, the Investigative Committee's raids on migrants have been seriously intensified. They are now trying to attract migrants forcibly as much as possible. But it will reach Russians as well. I think that in May it will be a turning point, when there will be a process of forced mobilization against the native citizens of the Russian Federation on Putin's instruction.

- Can Russia "break down" as a result of these mass losses?

- Of course. We are now witnessing the same thing that happened in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, critically overestimated its capabilities and fatally underestimated the capabilities of the Ukrainian defense forces. After which we saw with you the flight of Russians from the northern regions of Ukraine, the liberation of the Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy regions, followed by the liberation of the Kharkiv region and the right-bank Kherson region. But now this process will be somewhat more protracted.

The distinctive features of the weakening of the Russian group, which were there in 2022, we see now, in 2025. The only thing is that by using much more human resources (for example, in 2022 there were 180,000 of them, now there are about 650,000 on the territory of Ukraine), they are stretching it out, they can still somehow hold on. But there will still come that critical moment when Russian troops will be unable to either advance or hold the defense. It will be a turning point for them, when the Russian army will be forced to withdraw.

In the Pokrovsky direction, in some areas it has been observed for months that the Ukrainian defense forces, using their limited capabilities, are conducting successful counterattacks, regaining their positions. This is a vivid example that for Russia, to put it mildly, in 2025 this turning point may come - not in their favor.

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