The Russian Ruble Fell To Its Lowest Level Since April
1- 8.09.2025, 16:40
- 6,226
After the threat of new sanctions from Trump.
The threat to move to the "second phase" of sanctions against Russia, voiced the day before by Donald Trump, has dropped the Russian currency market.
On Monday, the yuan exchange rate on MosBirch rose to 11.53 rubles - the highest level since April 10. The dollar rose 82.24 rubles on the over-the-counter market and rewrote the maximum for the last 5 weeks, while on the forex market it reached 82.94 rubles, a record since early May, wrote The Moscow Times.
The euro's over-the-counter exchange rate also exceeded 96 rubles for the first time since April: it reached 96.24 rubles, according to Russian brokers.
"One of the main short-term risks for the market" was the possibility of new sanctions that could affect the energy and banking sectors, notes Veles Capital analyst Elena Kozhukhova. On the readiness of the Trump administration to go for restrictive measures on the eve said the head of the U.S. Treasury Department Scott Bessent.
If sanctions against buyers of Russian oil will be introduced together with the European Union, it will bring the Russian economy "to a complete collapse" and help to sit Putin at the negotiating table, he said. According to Bloomberg, the EU is also considering sanctions against Chinese companies and legal entities from Kazakhstan that help Russia circumvent current restrictions.
After surging in the first half of the year, when the ruble added about 40% against the dollar and euro, the Russian currency has been slowly but steadily weakening since mid-July. During this time, the yuan exchange rate has risen by 7%, the dollar by 6% and the euro by 6.5%.
"The best times for the ruble are behind us," states BCS analyst Ilya Fedorov. The largest exporters sharply reduced their sales on the market after the government canceled the requirement for mandatory repatriation of foreign currency earnings. In August, they sold only $6.5 billion against $9 billion in July and $12 billion a year earlier.
At the same time, the demand for currency is growing, Fedorov points out: if in June, legal entities bought $20 billion worth of currency, in July and August - $25.3 billion and $33.4 billion, respectively.
In these conditions, the ruble will continue to weaken and by the end of the year will reach 90 per dollar, Fedorov predicts.
In addition to the threat of sanctions, the ruble is also under pressure from expectations of further cuts in the Central Bank's key rate, which could take place as early as this Friday, and the general deterioration of the Russian economy, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims
You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com
