Russia can implement «peacekeeping operations» in Belarus without UN sanction?

The decisions taken on Saturday on Collective Security Treaty (CST) summit in Dushanbe are turning this amorphous structure into powerful military-political bloc, Kommersant running. Belarusian analytical center “Strategiya” head Leanid Zaika thinks, the Kremlin wants to spread the KGB reincarnation upon the whole Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

According to Kommersant, now CST will begin to form its peacekeeping forces and the bloc members can buy Russian weapon at internal prices. These steps and recent appointment of Foreign Intelligence Service ex-director Sergei Lebedev for a post of CIS executive secretary mean that Moscow is going to work seriously for strengthening of the Commonwealth with the aim to stop the decline of Russian influence there and not to allow Color revolutions on the post-Soviet territory.

According to the ratified provisions on the peacekeeping forces, CST can form the peacekeeping brigades of international status. As CST general secretary Nikolai Bordiuzha explained “Any crisis spot in the world can become a zone of peacekeeping activity. Moreover, in the area of responsibility (Armenia, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) the bloc can implement the operations absolutely independently, without the UN sanction.

“The main thing is that in case the situation dangerous for stability and internal security of one CST members appears, our organization can solve it by own forces without external interference”, - was explained to Kommersant in the principal office of the organization in Moscow.

It is clear that by CST Russia is meant. It is hard to imagine that Armenia or Kyrgyzstan were concerned about the establishing order in Belarus. But the Kremlin has its interests here, which it can defend with weapon.

A day before the CST summit, the new CIS executive secretary became FIS Director Sergei Lebedev. “This is the man who we need for the external policy of Russia that has foreground meaning for us – CIS, - Vladimir Putin commented this appointment. - Sergei Lebedev did not only lead the FIS, it may be said without exaggeration that he was engaged in state activity”.

By the nature of his previous office Sergei Lebedev was undoubtedly well informed about the situation in every CIS country. Formally FIS doesn’t conduct intelligence in the Commonwealth countries, it is forbidden by Almaty Treaty of 1992, according to which the secret services of the CIS members do not work against each other. In 2002 the treaty was prolonged. And Sergei Lebedev stressed many times that his department is fulfilling the treaty: FIS does not work against the CIS members, but “cooperate with their young secret services”.

However, the experts suppose that finding out the situation in a CIS country is possible under the pretence of preventing the third countries secret services activity. It is not forbidden to FIS, but it is its duty.

That’s why career intelligence officer Sergei can fulfill the most responsible tasks of the Center on the post-Soviet territory. Former deputy of Sergei Lebedev in FIS and present State Duma Security Committee deputy head Vitali Margelov thinks, that Sergei Lebedev will manage to from the good conception of CIS work: “On the threshold of the elections in Russia the president put right people on right places. That means we will work seriously in this direction: Lebedev has power not to allow the problems we have with Belarus, or Georgia, or Ukraine”.

However the attempts of Moscow to build a hard structure of the post-Soviet area can lead to the effect different from one the Kremlin expects. Many republics of the former USSR have accepted the existence of the CIS because the organization was ineffective and practically didn’t threaten their independence.

Another thing is really acting CIS. Moreover, it is headed now by career intelligence officer. All these can make many states on the post-Soviet area turn back on Moscow and search patrons on the West or in China.

The actions of the presidents of Georgia and Turkmenistan Mikheil Saakashvili and Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedow, who refused to sign many documents in Dushanbe, became the forerunner of merely such developments. Such apprehension can already be heard in the CIS.

- Lebedev is the right man for looking over the CIS. He, like Putin, is a typical secret service officer from the last USSR period, - Belarusian analytical center “Strategiya” head Leanid Zaika declared to Kommersant. – They are evidently going to spread the KGB reincarnation upon the whole Commonwealth. The main thing today is not to break it down to the end.