“Kommersant”: For the first time in 16 years Lukashenka cannot appeal to Moscow

Recently the relations of the Belarusian leader with the leadership of Russia have deteriorated.

The Belarusian authorities were obviously hasty to set the election date. According to the Constitution, the election is to be held two months before the expiry of the term of the president at the latest. Expiry of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s powers is on April 6, 2011. So the election could be set for February 6.

However the “parliament” which gathered for an extraordinary session, set the election on December 19. The authorities had a reason for the haste. It has been done primarily because of the Russian factor, and namely, serious deterioration of relations between Moscow and Lukashenka. Experts are saying in one voice that following the cut of Russian donations, the budget of Belarus is on the verge of default. Difficult negotiations with Russia on energy resources deliveries are expected in Minsk in December, and in the beginning of the year utility payments and basic foodstuffs are to go up by far because of almost inevitable price hike. According estimations of independent experts, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is to halve. That is why Minsk is trying to close the question of the president’s election before the hard times start.

However for the first time in 16 years of his rule Lukashenka faces not only pressure from the West, which has especially increased after the mysterious death of Aleh Byabenin, but with a harsh criticism from Moscow. The relations between the Belarusian ruler and Russian leadership have noticeably deteriorated in the last two years, and as a result economic, and then informational wars between Moscow and Minsk started. So this election is to become the first one at which Lukashenka won’t be able to appeal to Moscow for support. And it gives a chance to the Belarusian opposition.

However, while the Belarusian opposition acts piecemeal: more than a dozen of its representatives have stated their presidential ambitions. However, according to experts, only 4 out of the candidates are able to collect 100,000 signatures necessary for their nomination. They are the leaders of civil campaign “Tell the Truth!” Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu, and “European Belarus” Andrei Sannikov; deputy chairman of the United Civil Party Yaraslau Ramanchuk, and the leader of “For Freedom” organization Alyaksandr Milinkevich.

Some of the contenders are openly speaking that participation of several candidates for presidency is even advantageous for the opposition. “Firstly, several teams instead if one are to carry out anti-Lukashenka’s agitation. Secondly, it is easier to paralyze by repressive measures the work of one campaign headquarters then the work of a few ones,” explained the coordinator of the headquarters of Andrei Sannikov, Zmitser Bandarenka. Besides, according to him, oppositional candidates are to cooperate during the election campaign, revealing violations, and also rigging on the day of election.