Torture of peacebuilding

Today's war for Lukashenko is really a blest.

According to the old Soviet joke, to the question of whether the war will take place, Armenian Radio gave an answer that "There will be no was, however, there will be such a struggle for peace, that not a stone upon stone will be left." Alexander Lukashenko, in full compliance with the joke, has decided to join in the struggle for peace in Ukraine.

He stated about his intentions in the interview he gave to Euronews on last Friday, saying "For me it is a very dangerous and scary thing: distrust of Russia to the West, distrust of the West to Russia, distrust between America and Russia and vice versa. I would be willing to use our armed forces in order to dissolve the conflicting parties.”

Mr. Lukashenko has never said anything like this before. Statement for Euronews is not his words but someone else’s rhetoric. He was repeating the same thing over the past twenty years, namely that Belarusian soldiers will never die in a foreign land, the Belarusian mothers will never get notification of their sons’ death, and Belarusian armed forces will never be involved in a foreign war. Even in April, when he was meeting with the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Oleksandr Turchynov, he was convincing Mr. Turchynov that he will enter Ukraine not on the tank, but on a tractor to plow the land. However, at the same time he assured Mr. Turchynov that Russia does not need this war, saying: "Do not even think about it, because Putin will not come to Kiev on the tank. He does not need it, niether do you."

So the statement about readiness to send troops to Ukraine was in complete discrepency with the image of stable and peaceful country that has been constructed for years.

Moreover,it is strange, considering that the current war is a blest for Aleksandr Lukashenko. He is the only one to get all the benefits. He promised to Vladimir Putin that after the embargo Belarus will flood the entire Russia with Belarusian goods. He promised to Petro Poroshenko that Belarus will fill every Ukrainian tank with Belarusian diesel fuel (which will be obtained from the Russian preferential oil, of course, so that is a double benefit). He did not openly promised anything to the Europe, but he quietly agreed with the European states to glue labels "Made in Belarus" on their products, so they would not lose the Russian market. Furthermore, it was he who provided the platform for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in his private residence, and senior EU officials are now traveling on business to Minsk without even mentioning the issues with political prisoners. This is undoubtedly a full solitaire with four aces and a joker in the same hand. So, the declaration about his willingness to send troops to Ukraine comes all of a sudden.

Of course, Ukraine immediately rejected the "help", stating: "We believe that no peacekeeping troops in the Ukraine are needed. It is necessary that the Russian Federation and the terrorists adhere to "Minsk agreements" on a ceasefire and exchange of hostages,” immediately said Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyinis. - We will be able to restore order on our own land, as soon as the foreign troops leave.”

Foreign troops will not leave, and it is clear today. The question is why Lukashenko made ​​this scandalous statement. After all, he knew perfectly well that by this he is losing the support of the small number of people who were sincerely voting for him. These are those who live under the slogan "if only there had been no war". The answer to this question is in the sphere of union relations.

Not only that already for a few month no one remembers about human rights situation in Belarus as Aleksandr Lukashenko is a smaller evil in comparison to Putin for the West, but also due to the embargo, he became a business partner for everyone. And now he is defending the Kremlin in the Western media, although there was always the opposite trend. It seems that Vladimir Putin was disturbed by the established pattern and he decided to remind who the main ally of Belarus is and who is in charge of everything. Maybe he does not want the coffins from Ukraine to arrive only to Russia, but also to Belarus.

However, according to Belarusian law, it cannot send its troops to Ukraine, even with formal peacekeeping mission. According to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) there is no way for that as CSTO charter permits to have troops only on the territories of the union countries. Ukraine is not in the CSTO. Peacekeepers with a UN mandate constitute an international contingent, which could theoretically be Belarusians, but those people would be acting together with NATO and with the consent from Ukraine, so this scenario is also hardly possible. However, military relations within the union between Belarus and Russia are much stronger than in the CSTO. There is a common air defense system, a common group of the army, there are Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus, and Russia can strengthen its presence in Belarus at any time. Nevertheless, introduction of Belarusian troops to another country is beyond all international agreements and, in fact, the Belarusian laws. So from legal perspective Lukashenka's statements are the theatrical gesture towards an ally, in order for him not to take offense and not to forget to give money. He never forgot that of the same Friday, Russia announced that they are giving Belarus a loan for the construction of nuclear power plant.

However, the Russian laws do not provide for a possibility to attack a foreign state. Thus, when the laws do not apply in both countries which are allies, one should always expect the worst.

Irina Khalip, «Novaya Gazeta»