Alyaksandr Alesin: Lukashenka prepares army modernization

The turnaround in the development of military capability of the country started with change of the Defense Minister.

Today Lukashenka dismissed Belarus’ Defense Minister Yury Zhadobin. A military analyst Alyaksandr Alesin told charter97.org, what this dismissal really means and whether Lieutenant General has left military service for length of service.

- I think that it is primarily a change in priorities in the development of military capability. The leader of the state has obviously decided to make adjustments to modernization of the army, basing on the lessons of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is back to square one, and as a result, it lost a possibility to control its territory. I think that these events in Ukraine have made Lukashenka take measures in order to prevent such events in our country. He decided that some changes should be done, and the direction of development should be changed.

- What will change in the Belarusian army after the new appointment? Which type of way Belarus will prepare for?

- Now more investments will be done in mobile forces, special operations forces, in air defense, it is possible that aviation modernization could be started. That is, the things which are much in demand in modern times. There would hardly be any large battles with lots of tanks like Kursk battle. There will be special operations, pinpoint strikes, there will be no continuous front line… That’s how the modern war looks like.

- Could Zhadobin have displeased Lukashenka somehow?

- Usually, when a policy is changed, a person is replaced first of all. I think there are no claims against the personality of Zhadobin at all. It is simply a signal, and probably for the outer world, too, that the country is changing its military construction policy.

- But money is needed for modernization of the army…

- Exactly. I think that a change of persons only would not be a solution to all questions. We have already seen that persons were changed, and modernization was not taking place, as there were simply no money. If financing would support that, even if due to military force reduction, than it is possible.

- Who can replace Zhadobin?

- In the army the usual replacement is when a commander leaves, a Chief of Staff is appointed. It is another matter when some political issues and a change of policy are involved… Personally I think that Major General Aleh Belakoneu (Oleg Belokonev) is to be appointed instead of him. Some time is needed for a new person to get into the swing of the work, and it is a kind of a development’s pause. So I believe that it is simply needed to continue what had been started, what had not been completed by other generals.