Loans may hold the Belarusian ruble afloat

Given the situation in the Russian Federation, the fall of the Belarusian ruble will accelerate.

Economists believe that this year Belarus will require new loans to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency.

"It is likely that we will have to attract financing to support the Belarusian ruble. The devaluation that has already occurred is insufficient to stabilize the situation in the foreign trade of Belarus", Dzmitry Kruk, the expert of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center (BEROC), noted in his comments to BelaPAN.

On December 20 in the country it was introduced a 30 per cent fee for purchase of foreign currency by individuals and legal entities. Belarusian business associations regarded the decision of the Government and the National Bank as an actual devaluation of the national currency and called on the authorities to hold it officially.

Subsequently, the National Bank twice (29 December and 5 January) announced the reduction of the exchange fee, resulting its decrease to 10%. At the same time a gradual official devaluation of the Belarusian ruble was carried out: on December 29 the National Bank announced about the increase of the dollar rate from 11.030 to 11.800 rubles and from 11.900 to 12.740 rubles on January 5.

Experts predict that in the coming weeks the National Bank will cancel the effect of the exchange fee, then Belarus will be able to return to a single ruble rate in the domestic market.

As of January 5 a dollar rate in currency exchange offices in Belarusian banks (including 10 per cent exchange fee for individual entities when buying currency) was fixed at Br14.4-14.6 thousand.

The future situation in the foreign exchange market and, in particular, the size of the Belarusian ruble devaluation will depend on a possibility of the Government to attract loans to the country, Aliaksandr Mukha, the financial analyst of BusinessForecast.by research group, believes.

However, at the moment Belarus hardly has a few ways to attract new loans. Given the current economic situation in Russia, it will be difficult to implement.

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