Stanilsau Bahdankevich: Dollar To Cost Br18,000 Until End Of Year

Devaluation, inflation and impoverishment of the population in Belarus continues.

Since the beginning of the year the average exchange rate of dollar has gone up by 24%, but last month it has dropped by 1.4%. On November 2 in the Currency and Stock Exchange trading, the exchange rate of the US dollar went down by 17 rubles and became equal to Br17,421. The exchange rate of Euro has grown by 60 rubles.

The former head of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich in his interview to Radio Racyja explained the today’s “stability” of the Belarusian ruble and predicted would happen next to the national currency:

- The Belarusian ruble has become more or less “stable” now. To my mind, it is mostly related to the fact that our foreign trade balance has stabilized. I mean that the deficit balance of payments is not very significant. It was about 7% before, and now it is about 2%. The reason is, the authorities have been granted a debtor's delay in repayment of debts to Russia, and impoverishment of the population is taking place. There is a decrease in imports, the ruble money supply is used for domestic consumption, there is not enough money to buy currency. Domestic savings are dwindling. Because of low wage, low pensions and high prices people are forced to pour down the throat their savings.

- Is the crawling devaluation to continue?

- I think that it is to continue, as no positive moments going on in the economy. We are seeing only minuses. That is why the devaluation could be not abrupt, though a crawling devaluation is to continue. Both devaluation and inflation are to take place. To my mind, before the end of the year US dollar is to cost about Br18,000.

- And what are your predictions for the next year?

- It is too early to say something about that. We should wait to learn what plans and programmes the Belarusian authorities are going to announce at the “all-Belarusian assembly.”