IMF: Belarus Remains Region’s Last Country In Recession

Next year, the IMF expects the GDP growth in all the CIS countries except Belarus.

Bas Bakker, Senior Regional Resident Representative at the IMF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe, made a statement to this effect in a speech at the Kastryčnicky Economic Forum (KEF-2016), belaruspartisan.org writes.

Belarus significantly suffered from the decrease of oil prices, the decline of the Russian and Ukrainian markets, and the sanctions against Russia, stated in the report.

The downside of such a monetary policy was an inflation surge.

In 2016, the situation in the region started recovering. The prices for raw materials “jumped back”, while the capital inflows grew.

At present, the economies of the CIS countries are recovering.

The only country with no signs of recovery is Belarus.

The recession in our country is determined by a sharp fall in the domestic demand, the IMF’s official said. At the same time, unemployment remains at a low level because the collapse of the exchange rate has reduced real wages.

Next year, the IMF expects the GDP growth in all the CIS countries except Belarus. In the other countries of the region, the GDP will remain at the same level as in 2016. The recession will continue only in our country.

In general, the IMF prognosis contains mostly the risks of a pessimistic scenario. The main risk factors are:

- Tighter and more volatile financial conditions

- Weak economic growth in the Eurozone

- Slowing down of the growth in China

- Non-economic shocks (refugees issue, terrorism etc.)

Aside from that, ageing of population will become a big problem for the region.