Leu Marholin: Lukashenka Can Do Nothing But Snap

It is becoming more and more complicated for the dictator to set his conditions in arguments with Russia.

Economist Leu Marholin has said this in a comment to the charter97.org website.

— At present moment, there is an impression that Russia lost interest to Belarus. If previously the Russian Federation was interested at least in terms of politics and from the point of view of the informational policy, as Belarus was a sort of the last reliable ally, then lately the Russians’ interest to our country noticeably weakened. This is clearly seen also in the fact that the weapons aimed for Belarus were located at the territory of Kaliningrad region in the end, and in the gradual annihilation the Russian media started against Lukashenka. In the situation when Belarus seems to be losing attractiveness in many aspects, with an exception of the Union State perhaps, Lukashenka, naturally, is trying to stick to anything that is left.

Remember, he was saying in early autumn that there are too many Belarusian officials in the structures of the EurAsEs, what’s the point of their being there and why do we need all these formations. Of course, he can do nothing aside these statements, as the Russian leash remains quite strong: we receive oil duty-free , although in the reduced format, and gas. If something happens, they can block the Russian market without which we cannot do. Therefore, Lukashenka can do nothing but snap.

All these statements regarding the Customs Code, like whether we need it or not, that all should be carefully weighed, adjusted etc. – this is nothing more but snapping. He will sign this Customs Code anyway. As far as I remember, the signing is planned in two weeks, on December 26. So he can maintain some social tension for these two weeks. However, the situation does not seem favourable for him to insist on his terms. The most he can get is to delay the signing for a couple of weeks.

— In general, how would you describe the economic relations within the Eurasian Economic Union, the fall in turnover?

— If the two countries are in crisis, the trade turnover between them cannot grow. However, the reasons for the crisis are somewhat different. If in the case of Russia it’s the decrease of oil prices and international sanctions for the actions taken with regard to Ukraine, the crisis in Belarus is the result of an ill-conceived policy of Lukashenka throughout his term in office. The insane attachment of the Belarusian economy to Russia, its unipolarity led to what it couldn’t help leading. Moreover, if the majority of enterprises in Russia are privatized, they remain state-owned in Belarus. This unipolarity is superimposed with the management inefficiency, bulkiness, and so on.