Leanid Zlotnikau: Belarusian Model Exhausted Opportunities For Existence

The economist has explained why the economy continues its rapid decline.

According to the latest data of the National Statistics Committee, the GDP of Belarus upon the results of 2016 decreased by 2,6% compared to the same period last year. The volume of the industrial production in the country also decreased - by 0,4%. And all this - in spite of the optimistic statements made by the government that the country had reached the bottom of the economic crisis and was starting to revive.

What prevents Belarus from getting out of the economic quagmire?

“All resources have been eaten up during this time: on beautiful houses, external glitter and ineffective modernization”.

– There were no grounds for optimism last year, – economist Leanid Zlotnikau has told in an express-comment to Solidarity. – This confirmed once again that the Belarusian model had exhausted all opportunities for existence. This system entered the crisis already in late 1990s. However, then the “big oil” came, and we enjoyed some leftovers from the Russian table. And now the external support decreased and we appeared in a crisis.

According to the expert, “all resources have been eaten up during this time: on beautiful houses, external glitter and ineffective modernization”.

– We ate up not only the power subsidies, but also the loans which grew bigger and bigger in 2006-2014. And now we have to return them and pay the interest,” – the interlocutor says.

Leanid Zlotnikau thinks that, given just one fact, it becomes clear the decline in the country was inevitable.

– Just think, in 2012-2013 the real incomes of the population grew by approximately by 30%. It happened in two years! The economic growth was 1,5-2% then. Where did the money come from? This was crazy. Now everything collided and caused this complicated economic situation.

The economist is convinced that the recession of the Belarusian economy will continue.

– If we understand this is a fundamental tendency, not some temporary crisis caused by exceeded manufacture or decline of demand, everything falls at its place.