Russia demands Lukashenka to pay

Russia expects Belarus to make rather political than economic concessions to pay for ongoing financing of the Belarusian economy by Russia, Russian Kommersant daily has reported today.

Prime minister Vladimir Putin announced about the first since autumn 2008 session of the supreme state council of Russia-Belarus “union”. Alyaksandr Lukashenka is to arrive in Moscow on February 3.

The session of the supreme state council of the “union state” was postponed two times without explaining reasons – on November 3 and December 1, 2008. Vladimir Putin and Belarusian prime minister Syarhei Sidorski agreed on a new date at a session of the council of ministers of the “union state” of Russia and Belarus, held on Friday. After the meeting, Sidorski said agenda of the session of the state council was had been prepared. The prime ministers didn’t comment on its content, but said the talks would have financial and economic character.

Syarhei Sidorski left Moscow with a promise of Vladimir Putin “to fasten” transferring of the second $1-billion tranche of Russian 2-billion-dollar loan, promised in the end of 2008. Belarus got the first tranche in November last year. It was decided at the session of the council of ministers to transfer the second billion in February. However, it is not the whole financial aid of Russia. After the session of the council of ministers, Vladimir Putin said budget of the “union state” wouldn’t be reduced, it means that the Russian government, which has already cut investment spending of the Russian budget, will pay the greater part of the “union state”, equal at 4.9 billion rubles. The Russian stake is 3.2 billion rubles, the Belarusian one is 1.7 billion rubles.

Amid the global financial problems, caused by the financial crisis, Belarus is insured with cheap loans in excess. The International Monetary Fund approved a $2.46-billion loam on January 12. On January 28, Pyotr Prakapovich, head of the National Bank of Belarus, said about attracting of a $1-billion loan of the IMF in April–May 2009 as a done deal. He also said about beginning of the negations “of the Belarusian authorities on attracting of resources of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in July” and about “cooperation” with European countries on direct credit financing. According to Mr Prakapovich, credits wil allow Belarus to increase its gold and currency reserves up to $7.75 billion by January 1, 20010 against $3.66 billion in January 2009.

Belarus doesn’t explain how it is going to pay for the loan or at least to “serve” it by economic actions, profitable for Russia. However, at the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Syarhei Sidorski didn’t propose any serious economic actions in exchange to $1 billion and a promise to continue financing of investment programmes of the “union state” in full. Vladimir Putin and Syarhei Sidorski signed only “The Plan of Joint Actions on Addressing the Consequences of the Financial Crisis, Improving of Balance of Payments and Conditions of Business and Mutual Trading”.

Moscow doesn’t give much value to this document. Ahead of the session of the council of ministers, head of the Ministry of Economy Elvira Nabiullina said “the plan of joint actions didn’t contain any new decisions”. Key points – “non-acceptance of decisions, infringing interest of any of the parties” and “regular exchange of information about privatization of industry objects” (the latter apparently means that Belarus shouldn’t privatize anything if it may come as a surprise for Russian aspirants for assets in the country). Elvira Nabiullina also said the main part of the document provides actions on creation of a customs union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a contribution of Belarus to the “union”, Syarhei Sidorski promised to “go to the Russian–Belarusian external frontier and carry out concerted border, customs and phytosanitary control by January 1 2010”. But it can be fulfilled only if Kazakhstan supports these actions. As Vladimir Putin said, “formation of the real customs union should be aligned”, but Kazakhstan retards the process.

Though a number of issues, which would have been looked like compensation of Belarus for the Russian loan (for instance, transferring to payments in rubles in foreign trading) were discussed, Russia’s locality to the “union” partner seems not to be paid with economic concessions. However, Alyaksandr Lukashenka will get an opportunity to make steps forward to Russian in political questions at the session of the state council in Moscow on February 3. Putin didn’t promise the second part of the loan would be transferred to Belarus before this date.