“Gas war” between Moscow and Minsk

In spite of”conciliatory” statements of the Russian prime minister on preserving energy trade preferences for Belarus, the Russian media note Gazprom will continue pressing the Belarusian authorities.

At the end of last week, Gazprom promised to reduce gas supplies, if Minsk didn’t pay off a debt of 244 million dollars in July. The Belarusian authorities admitted they have a debt of 234 million dollars and promised to pay it until November. It means that Moscow and Minsk, who seem to have ended the “milk war”, have found themselves on the verge of a gas war, Kommersant daily writes.

Gazprom’s head Aleksey Miller expressed a threat of cutting gas supplies to Belarus. As Gazprom says, the debt is made up of underpayment of gas supplies in January–April (234 million dollars) and fines for late payments. The newspaper learnt from its sources, the gas monopoly paid 625 million dollars for 12.5% stake in Beltransgaz (having increased its stake to 37.5%) and 250 million dollars advance payment fro gas transit via Belarus. Thus, Gazprom has paid 875 million dollars to Minsk this year, so Belarus has money to pay for gas.

However, Minsk is not going to fulfil the conditions of Miller. First vice premier of Belarus Uladzimir Syamashka told on Friday the country would start to pay the debt on July and would pay off no sooner than in November. According to Syamashka, Minsk admitted only 234.1 million debt, but is not going to pay fines.

A reason for controversies, Kommersant notes, lies in different interpretations of the results of the meeting between Russian and Belarusian presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Alyaksandr Lukashenka on April 10. According to Minsk, president Medvedev promised Belarus it would pay the annual average price (150 dollars per 1000 cubic meters). However, Gazprom doesn’t admit the verbal arrangements of Medvedev and Lukashenka. “This issue (paying annual average price for gas) was discussed at the top-level negotiations, but it wasn’t mentioned in supplements to the contract,” Aleksey Miller said.

Moscow and Minsk will have a violent gas clash, this time on gas prices for Belarus for the nearest years. Gazprom is going to transfer Minsk to European prices minus transportation expenses from 2011. Uladzimir Syamashka told on Friday Belarus would insist on delaying this term till 2014, because Russia “doesn’t adhere to an equal profit principle on its territory”. Taking into account the fact that Gazprom used to deny similar proposals of Minsk, Russia will remain unyielding this time too.

Nevertheless, Russia’s prime minister Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with leader of the Duma’s fractions that Russian was going to preserve trade preferences for Belarus. “For the near future we intend to continue supporting of the Belarusian economy, while bearing in mind the tendency toward switching to world price levels for energy,” RIA Novosti quotes Putin.

However, “Novye Izvestiya” newspaper notes that Russian giant expressed its claims on June 18, the day when the “milk war” was officially ended. Minsk responded with a nervous reaction: Belarus has no bets to Russia. Minsk regards the conflict as clearly political. Alyaksandr Lukashenka told at a meeting with head of the Rostov province Vladimir Chub the Kremlin tried to do him “more pain”.

Belarusian politologist Viktar Martsinovich called this “the beginning of the next stage of a big trade war”. “Milk was followed by gas, then oil can be expected,” he forecasts. According to the expert, “Moscow will crackdown Minsk unless it fulfils political and economic demands. “however, a matter of recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains unsolved, the spring parliamentary session ended, and the “parliament” will hardly be called for an special session to consider recognition of the new republics,” he thinks.