BBC: Lukashenka is bankrupt anyway

The political broil with the leadership of Russia buries the forth residential term of Lukashenka, analysts are convinced.

“The Rubicon has been crossed, there is no way back. And the Kremlin has written Lukashenka off as a politician and as a person,” the leader of the United Civil Party of Belarus Anatol Lyabedzka said in an interview to the BBC Russian service.

According to the oppositional politician, the position of the president of Russia, set out in the blog of Dmitry Medvedev, shifts the relations of the leadership of Belarus and Russia from the sphere of personal and personalities’ “clashes” into a public discussion about the future of the neighbouring states.

“Lukashenka had been considered a pro-Russian leader in Russia for a long time. Even longer he had been treated according to a well-known formula: “he may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch!” And finally, the Kremlin has understood that the Belarusian “ally” fails to come up to guide the state. One cannot be a member of a polite company with a philosophy of a small-time racketeer,” the situation is commented by the first leader of independent Belarus Stanislau Shushkevich, one of the authors of Belavezha Accords.

A politician Andrei Sannikov, who plans to become a rival of Lukashenka in the upcoming election, believes that the Belarusian leader assigns to the public anti-Russian campaign a part of a shock-absorber for future internal disasters.

“By labeling “the foe”, because of whom the notorious Belarusian stability may collapse any minute, Lukashenka intimidates the voter and expects to be re-elected for the forth term as a defender of the people’s interests. He is trying to sell to the West his retouched image of the defender of the national sovereignty, a barrier in the way of “Russia’s imperial ambitions”, stated Sannikov in an interview to BBC.

The message in Dmitry Medvedev’s blog is assessed unambiguously in campaign headquarters of Lukashenka’s opponents: in the upcoming presidential election Russia won’t support any of the candidates, but would evaluate the campaign most rigorously.

The public answer of Dmitry Medvedev, according to the politician Andrei Sannikov, should be primarily understood by the Belarusian governing establishment.

“It is signaled to the establishment: they should not pin their hopes for future on Lukashenka. The regime must be changed, and normal relations with the world should be established, while Lukashenka has managed to fall out with many in the world. We should build normal relations with Russia,” Sannikov said.

According to forecasts of analysts, even after winning another “elegant victory” after votes count in polling stations, Lukashenka will soon become in a role of a bankrupt. “It won’t be possible to “sweet-talk” the prices for Russian energy resources, traditionally revised in the beginning of the year. And the nation should understand: “I am not to blame,” and it is already clear for the officials who will be blamed in this country,” a Candidate of economic sciences Liudmila Hraznova believes.