When will the fall of the ruble pass the "red line"?
Vadzim Iasub, Senior Analyst of Alpari, shares his opinion on how the main currencies will behave towards the Belarusian ruble in the coming days.
- Last week all foreign currencies increased in price in the Belarusian market. The dollar rose by 0.67%, the euro by 1.26%, the Russian ruble by 0.53%. Accordingly, the entire basket rose by 0.72%.
The meeting of the European Central Bank on Wednesday will be the one that can effect the exchange rate this week, however, it does not have decisions on interest rates on its agenda.
On Thursday the EU GDP data for the third quarter will be released: 0.6% growth is expected in q/q and 2.5% in the annual quantities.
On Friday unemployment statistics will be released in the US for November. It is expected that the number of jobs out of agriculture will increase by 185 thousand, and the unemployment rate will increase from 4.1% in October to 4.2%.
In addition, on Friday there is deadline for raising the limit of public debt in the US. If Congress does not raise this limit until Friday, then the government will stop working.
According to my forecasts, the decline of the Belarusian ruble will continue this week. By the end of the week the dollar will be in the range of 2.0-2.05 rubles, the euro - 2.40-2.45, and the Russian ruble will equal to 3.42-3.49 Belarusian rubles for 100 Russian rubles.