Leanid Zlotnikau: Gap Between Rich And Poor Expands In Belarus

A very tense situation will develop in the country In the near future.

The average Belarusian family in January—September had a monthly amount of Bn 1026.7. Residents of cities had Bn 1 096.3 per month, and in rural settlements – Bn 843.4. According to tut.by, Minskers are leading in terms of monthly disposable resources — almost Bn 1,371.2, while those in the Mahiliou region lag behind with Bn 914.5. The gap between the richest families (Minsk citizens) and the poorest (Vitsebsk) is almost 1.5 times.

Zlotnikau: Where would incomes come from?

— This is a big discrepancy. In Minsk, the average salary has already exceeded Bn 1000, and in the regions — Bn 500-600 rubles. Very low incomes in rural areas, agricultural enterprises do not actually have the resources to pay salaries, they are in a very difficult financial situation, " — economist Leanid Zlotnikau said in a comment for zautra.by.

According to the recently published BEROC study "Determinants of poverty in the period of economic growth and its absence. Assessment of the dynamics of poverty in Belarus in 2009-2016", the poverty rate for rural regions during 2009-2016 was approximately 44% higher than the national average. And in cities it was 16% lower than the average for Belarus.

"This testifies to the existence of significant economic inequality in the state," the author of the study concludes, research fellow of BEROC Oleg Masol.

He researched the level and determinants of poverty in Belarus on the basis of data from the National Statistical Committee for Household Sample Surveys on Living Standards for the period 2009-2016. The poverty level was estimated on the basis of consumer spending using a cost-based approach to meeting the basic needs of the household, using food and absolute poverty lines.

According to the methodology used, over the past two years, absolute poverty in Belarus doubled and reached 29% of the population.

Leanid Zlotnikau recalls that almost every third Belarusian lives on average per capita income of Bn 290.

"This is a very low level," — the expert says.

Will there be a widening gap between the poor and the rich? According to the economist, in the current economic situation, the Belarusians have only one forecast:

— The economic model does not change and it is inefficient. Where can the incomes that can be divided between people come from? We need reforms, modernization, investments. And they haven’t come here for the last 3-4 years, and before they were not very significant. Enterprises become obsolete, competitiveness in foreign markets is low, revenues are falling.

This year was relatively favorable for Belarus, the expert believes. This is mainly due to the growth of the world economy. But this did not affect the welfare of the Belarusians.

"We are not talking about salaries, but about real incomes, which until recently were only declining,"— Leanid Zlotnikau said.

The economist warns that a favorable external conjuncture cannot last forever, and if we talk about internal growth factors, then they simply do not exist.

— This is on the one hand, and on the other, we are pressed by debts. In the next three years there will be a very tense situation with their return, " — the expert noted.

According to Leanid Zlotnikau, the inhabitants of the poorer regions cannot count on Russia, where Belarusans went to earn more money in more prosperous years.

— About 15% of Russians are below the poverty line, in the Russian outback the situation is no better than ours, — says the economist.