No More Money for Lukashenka

No one wants to lend to the dictator.

Since the beginning of the year dollar has been getting cheaper and the dollar debt declines in Belarusian rubles, at the same time the national debt has increased by 100 million rubles.

As of February 1, 2017 the national debt of Belarus equals to 36.6 billion rubles and decreased by 0.4. billion rubles or 1% as compared to the beginning of the year.

The external debt amounted to $13.5 billion decreased by $95.7 million (adjusted for exchange rate differences) or 0.7% since the beginning of the year.

In January 2017 the government attracted $36.8 million of external loans, and paid $140 million, the Ministry of Finance informs.

As of January 1, 2017 the domestic debt amounted to 10.4 billion rubles increased by 0.51billion rubles (adjusted for exchange rate differences) or 0.1% since the beginning of the year.

In January the government placed domestic sovereign bonds for legal and physical entities at $68.9 million and repaid them for individuals at $18.2 thousand.

As of January 1, 2017 the national debt of Belarus equals to 37 billion rubles and increased by 4.1 billion or 12.5% as compared to the beginning of 2016.

"Belarus has not become closer to new loans"

Senior Analyst of Alpari Vadzim Iasub explains BDH the debt reduction by two factors: the reduction of foreign debt and fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate.

- In ruble terms the national debt dropped by 400 million. It has happened because of two reasons - decline in the external debt by $95.7 million (less than 200 million rubles) and fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate. Since the beginning of the year dollar has been getting cheaper which means lower ruble debt.

This is likely set of undesirable circumstances for the Belarusian authorities rather than a tendency. At this point the government would rather increase the external debt, for example, at the expense of other tranche of the EEU or the IMF's loan. The debt reduction indicates that debt refinancing remains unchanged, than the existence of sustainable positive trends.

- How can the reduction of the external debt be explained amid the growth of the domestic one?

- Both the external and domestic debts are repaid on an amortized basis. Failure to pay the debt on time is called a default.

- What is the reason for the domestic debt increase?

- It has increased by 100 million rubles because of domestic sovereign bonds for legal and physical entities at $67 million. That is, the domestic market has more bonds than it has repaid.

- Has the situation with new loans changed over the past month?

– No. We have come closer neither to other tranche of the EEU Anti-Crisis Fund nor to the IMF's loan.