New "Fuel Surprise" for Belarusians

Prices for petrol can start increasing.

In the third quarter of this year our country will receive 4.5 million tons of Russian oil. This is announced by the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak.

Over this period, assumed earlier, Belarus will receive 7 million tons of Russian oil.

Why did the Kremlin cut supplies of "black gold"?

Zhaliba: Perhaps, the reduction in oil supply is a punishment

- There is some tiff between Belarus and Russia again, economist Barys Zhaliba supposes in the commentary to Zautra Tvaye Krainy. - Relations on fuel and energy issues have always been controversial between our countries. Maybe they again failed to agree on something, and Russia uses oil supplies as the punishment.

According to the Doctor of Economic Sciences, there are no sharp fluctuations in the world oil market right now.

- The oil price, however, became lower, it does not exceed $50 per barrel for the best brands, but it is not a collapse. The production is also more or less stable in Russia and other countries, the professor points out.

The expert recalls that Moscow promised to supply Minsk with 18 million tons of oil for processing and other 6 million tons allowed re-exporting.

Barys Zhaliba does not rule out that the next dispute will be resolved between the allies, Russia will reconsider its position and will increase oil supplies in the fourth quarter.

However, in his opinion, it will be difficult to make up 2.5 million tons per quarter, since the possibilities of oil pipelines are limited.

- The issue is whether they pump oil at full capacity to the EU countries which reduce the consumption of Russian energy resources. Probably, there will be some reserves, the interlocutor believes.

He does not link the information on the reduction of oil supplies with the upcoming meeting of Lukashenka and Putin on June 30 in Moscow.

- It would be an attempt of the Russian side to lower the negotiating positions of Lukashenka. Of course, this could be timed for the visit of the head of Belarus. But, in my opinion, there is some other reason, Barys Zhaliba thinks.

Marholin: The oil war will fade, and then burst out again

Economist Leu Marholin notes that if the Belarusian side does not give an explanation why the domestic refineries are not able to process the planned volumes of oil, it "will mean another round of the oil war."

"I do not see any other explanations, because Belarus is extremely interested in making the best catch up," the expert believes.

According to him, the reduction of Russian oil supplies will result in losses for the budget of Belarus, as the treasury will receive less export and customs duties.

- This is the main source of revenue for the budget. We get duty-free Russian oil, and we sell with the use of a unified export duty with Russians which remains in the Belarusian budget," the economist says.

He also emphasizes that domestic refineries will not receive enough profit.

- It is not ruled out that prices for oil products will again increase for the population, so that they can compensate for losses a little," the source predicted.

The economist believes that there will be no end of the oil war between Belarus and Russia, because the two countries have too different interests.

The oil war will fade, and then burst out again. Now, probably, there are things that could not be negotiated, or something new emerged. This may be political, military or economic disagreements, Leu Marholin assumes.