People are withdrawing money from banks massively.
In June, ruble deposits nominally grew in Belarus, while deposits in the currency fell. This is evidenced by the June statistics of the National Bank on the monetary and credit market. However, according to the expert, without taking into account accrued interest, ruble deposits also decreased last month.
In June, according to the National Bank, deposits in Belarusian rubles increased by Bn 22,4 million, or by 0,7%. On July 1, their amount was Bn 3,23 billion.
According to the estimates of Alpari's senior analyst Vadzim Iasub, in June, ruble deposits, taking into account the average rate of 12,3% per annum, still declined:
— According to my calculations, about Bn 32,9 million were accrued as interest. Without them, the influx turns into an outflow of Bn 10,5 million, or 0,3%," — the expert told tut.by. — It can be recalled that the situation when the inflow was nominally observed, and in fact its was the outflow, was in March and April. Last month there was an influx even without interest.”
The decrease in foreign currency deposits in May amounted to $ 14,2 million, or 0,2%. In banks, according to the latest data, Belarusians keep $ 6,8 billion.
— The average rate remained unchanged — 2,6%. During the month, $ 14,8 million was accrued as interest. Without this, the outflow would have been $ 29 million, or 0,4%," — Vadzim Iasub said. — The outflow of foreign currency deposits, with rare exceptions, lasts from the autumn of the year before last — this is a common tendency”.
According to Vadzim, the outflow of ruble deposits happens primarily due to lower interest rates.
"However, given the structural liquidity surplus of banks, I think this situation does not have a significant impact on the banking system," — the expert said.