19 March 2024, Tuesday, 8:22
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Lukashenka Is Like a Cat on Hot Bricks

Lukashenka Is Like a Cat on Hot Bricks
CARTOON BY OLEG SMAL (UKRAINE)

Ridiculous attempts to explain the visit of Lukashenka to Kyiv.

It was fun to observe the way our experts tried to logically explain the visit of Lukashenka to Ukraine.

I know a holiday is what they lust after. But even an expectation of a miracle in a foreign policy should not deprive those who call themselves experts of the ability to think.

For that matter, all those who are trying to trumpet the latest foreign political holiday appeal to two "victories"/pluses based on results of the action:

- Ukraine made Russia worry while carrying on a scheme with Minsk behind the back of Moscow. And this, allegedly, has promoted the country's own security also against the background of upcoming Russia-Belarus military exercises and Belarusians' concerns about the Russian expansion;

- The visit works in favor of the economy and the trade.

A desire of independent experts to help the Ukrainian authority to explain its policy is good. But it should be done wisely. Otherwise, the result will be opposite to the one expected.

For example, on pages of Ukrainskaya Pravda Olesya Yakhno concludes that only citizens of Belarus with their internal political reasons could oppose the visit of Lukashenka.

"Internal political reasons" include the use of the death penalty, persecution and neutralization of the opposition, the silencing of dissent. Well, really, why should Ukrainians be concerned about internal political problems of Belarus?

However, reasons exist. First of all, it is extremely bad when experts who sometimes can be suspected of Ukrainian leanings (some representatives in power) try to minimize the role and meaning of the situation with freedoms in the neighbouring country. No, it does not damage bilateral Belarus-Ukraine relations, but the Ukrainian domestic policy. Suspicions, you know, start to rise. And it promotes lower rating of the power. Thus, that's why I insist on a wise help.

Second, the situation with human rights and freedoms in Belarus cannot be ignored by Ukraine because we should pursue a coherent foreign policy stipulated by the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. As we know, Lukashenka and Belarus still fall under European sanctions under which the Belarusian leader is not welcomed in Europe. Especially with official visits.

Third, murders in the Maidan could also be called "internal political reasons". But we had hope on support and solidarity of the world, didn't we? So does it entitle us to ignore the same needs of the Belarusians?

The status of the Lukashenka's visit is the issue of a small circle. An official one is a very high status of a visit. It requires good reasons and an extremely high level of political relations. What do our relations with Belarus look like? Like an empty space.

Belarus does not recognize the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The position is fixed at the level of the UN resolution. And, of course, on the same web pages of the Ukrainskaya Pravda a younger generation of experts can enjoy Belarus-Ukraine relations as much as wish within the framework of the next session of the PA OSCE, but this does not change the result of the UN voting in support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine in 2014.

And it's a shameless lie in favor of Minsk to state that Belarus has not recognized the annexation of the Crimea.

The current state of political relations in its entirety (and not only in the context of Poroshenko's statement that Lukashenka is his friend) is rather a reason to dissolve diplomatic relations than to welcome the leader of the foreign enemy with an official visit.

Moreover, the "coincidence" of the visit with the murder anniversary of Pavel Sheremet is unique and idiotic. Our diplomats fail to see an entire gamut.

Perhaps, some Ukrainian experts really believe that the security of northern borders of Ukraine is guaranteed by two-hour tete-a-tete negotiations between Poroshenko and Lukashenka. I think that the military threat is more about intentions and resources, and also about the balance of forces and interests.

I would not hurry to fall for some promises of Lukashenka regarding future military maneuvers with the Russians because of two reasons:

- First, these maneuvers are the threat to NATO countries (and, apparently, NATO understands this well without such "tricky" Ukrainian tips and signals such as Lukashenka's official visit to Kyiv)

- Second, there is no reason to believe that Aliaksandr Lukashenka will be able to resist if Russia decides to use Belarus as a springboard for aggression against Ukraine (or other states).

Neither Aliaksandr Lukashenka, nor his state are independent political, economic and military players. Therefore, a sincere joy of any assurances from Lukashenka can only testify to poor judgement of his Ukrainian respondents.

And I will never believe that Ukrainians somehow "tear off" Lukashenka and Belarus from Russia through such simple manipulations (friendly gatherings in Kyiv). In fact, they only play up to the ruler of Belarus in his endless game of begging Russians to save his regime.

The economy is always of high priority. Obviously, the list of bilateral documents signed during the visit misses one which could directly relate to the complex of trade and economic ties. There were some talks about trade, co-production, etc., but there were no particular deals, moreover, signed agreements. It happens all the time with us now - the oral tradition of diplomacy is expanding, as once anecdotes. But this is for a thinking public. Others can continue to play big figures in the growth of mutual trade turnover (Belarus simply uses/makes money on problems between Ukraine and Russia, and does it successfully without any visits or official meetings).

In general, three documents signed during the visit (two of them do not concern the humanitarian and cultural sphere at all) are very few for an official visit. Well, the essence of these documents does not characterize either priorities of Ukraine, or the essence of the current moment in relations with Belarus.

There are many willing to believe and spread talks about very promising directions and projects in the military-technical sphere. Faith is a powerful thing (especially in the supply of coal and uranium from Australia Poroshenko also agreed upon three years ago).

I will continue to believe as well that, first, Russians have enough influence over Belarus to prevent something serious or threatening to them. And I will also continue to believe that military-technical cooperation with the state that is an ally of your enemy is a very dangerous and unreliable thing.

Lukashenka's visit to Ukraine was useful. For Lukashenka. Against the backdrop of serious domestic political and economic problems, he continues to tie himself into knots begging here and there, infinitely trading some political dividends for Russia's financial and economic subsidies.

No one could explain the value of the visit to Ukraine. And since no one explained why the Ukrainians paid for next foreign policy triumph, no one will take away our right to believe that nothing happened except for Femen's bare chest and misfortune with the head of the State Control Committee.

Bogdan Yaremenko, "The Maidan of Foreign Affairs"

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